Pirates vs. Rockies MLB Betting Odds & Pick: Don’t Expect Many Runs at Coors Field (June 29)
Justin Edmonds/Getty Images. Pictured: German Marquez.
- The Colorado Rockies and Pittsburgh Pirates continue their three-game series on Tuesday night after the Rockies shut out the Pirates on Monday.
- The Rockies are a different club at home, winning 10 of their last 14 at Coors Field.
- Mike Ianniello explains below why he thinks the Pirates will continue to struggle at the plate below.
Pirates vs. Rockies Odds
|Over/Under||11 (-105 / -117)|
|Time||8:40 p.m. ET|
Colorado took game one of this three-game series against Pittsburgh 2-0 on Monday afternoon. A Yonathan Daza RBI triple and Elias Diaz solo shot were all the Rockies needed as they used five pitchers to shutout the Pirates.
Despite having the third worst record in the National League, the Rockies somehow have the third most home wins in the NL. Colorado has won 10 of its last 14 games at Coors Field and can secure the series victory with another win on Tuesday night.
Pirates Offense has Walked the Plank
Tuesday will mark the sixth start of the season for Chase De Jong (RHP), which already is the most starts in a season for his five-year career. De Jong has a 4.94 ERA and has earned the loss in his last two starts.
Don’t expect De Jong to last long in this game. He has not pitched more than five innings all season and has struggled as hitters see him a second time. Through the first three innings he has a 3.00 ERA, but in innings four and five, he has an 8.31 ERA.
Coors Field could be trouble for De Jong who has allowed a 35.4 HardHit% and an average exit velocity of 91 mph this year. Teams have a .370 wOBA and .472 xSLG against him this season.
Pittsburgh was just the second team to get shutout at Coors Field all season yesterday. The Pirates managed just five hits, all singles. The thin air in Denver obviously helps the ball fly more, but I’m not sure how much it will help this Pirates team that ranks last in the league in slugging percentage, Hard Hit percentage and average exit velocity.
The Buccos already rely on Adam Frazier, Ke’Bryan Hayes and Bryan Reynolds for basically all of their offense, but that could become even more apparent with their cleanup hitter Colin Moran leaving yesterday’s game after being hit by a pitch on the wrist.
Colorado will have its ace on the mound in German Marquez (RHP) on Tuesday. In 16 starts this season, the Rockies Opening Day starter is 6-6 with a 3.99 ERA and 3.51 FIP.
With the exception of a blowup start in Cincinnati a couple weeks ago, Marquez has been brilliant recently. In his last seven starts, he has allowed one run or fewer in six starts. He has allowed just two home runs in his last seven starts.
Marquez has just an 8.87 K/9 rate this year but he generates soft contact and keeps the ball on the ground. He is ninth in the league with just 0.70 HR/9. and his 54.1% ground ball rate is the second best in the league.
Whatever magic spell the Rockies have at Coors Field this season doesn’t seem to be wearing off anytime soon. The Denver altitude is always an advantage for the offenses, but not this much. The Rockies rank first in the league averaging 5.7 runs per game at home this season. They have the best home batting average at .280 and rank third with a .810 OPS at home.
Well on the road, they are last in the league averaging just 2.6 runs per game. They are last in the league with an abysmal .196 batting average and also a league-worst .566 OPS on the road.
The Rockies have a completely different team at Coors Field compared to anywhere else. In Denver, they are apparently a juggernaut and have a 26-16 record. Anywhere else in the country, and they are the worst team in the league and are a brutal 6-31.
I bet against Colorado at home yesterday, and I won’t make that mistake again. However, I also don’t feel comfortable laying -170 with a team that is so bad in 29 of the 30 ballparks in the league.
However, even Coors Field might not be enough to help the Pirates offense. Especially against Marquez. Do you want to know when thin air doesn’t matter? When the ball is on the ground.
In 10 starts at home this season, Marquez is 5-1 with a 3.56 ERA and has somehow allowed just two home runs. He has surrendered two runs or less in seven of his home starts, and has allowed just two total runs in his last four games at home.
I expect Pittsburgh to struggle to score again on Tuesday and think the best bet is to play the under 11 at -115 or better.
I also think this is a good spot for a No Runs in First Inning bet. De Jong has struggled in later innings but has yet to allow a first inning run all season.
Pick: Under 11 (-113) | No Runs First Innings (+128)