MLB Betting Odds, Sharp Pick: Rays vs. Yankees (Thursday, Oct. 8)
Sarah Stier/Getty Images. Pictured: Gary Sanchez and Jordan Montgomery
- The Yankees are slight favorites over the Rays as they face elimination in Game 4 of the ALDS (7:10 p.m. ET, TBS).
- All three games thus far in the series have recorded exactly 12 runs, hitting the over with ease in each case.
- Sharp betting action, however, is not following the trend of the first three games. Check out the pick the sharps are making below.
Rays vs. Yankees Game 4 Odds
| Rays Odds | +120 |
| Yankees Odds | -140 |
| Over/Under | 9 (+100/-120) |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
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Games 1, 2 and 3 of the Rays vs. Yankees Division Series have closed with over/unders of 7, 8.5 and 9, respectively.
Their number of actual runs scored? 12, 12 and 12, respectively.
In other words, Rays-Yankees overs have been automatic to this point in the series. But are sharps buying the trend continuing into Game 4? Our PRO Report suggests not.
Let's take a look.
Data as of 1 p.m. ET. For immediate access to our MLB PRO Report, start a Free Trial today! You'll also get:
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Rays vs. Yankees Game 4 PRO Report
As our report nicely indicates, sharps and big bettors (which are probably one and the same) are backing the under tonight. And a PRO betting system suggest that history is on that side as well.
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Sharp Action
Three games is clearly not a large enough sample for sharp bettors, who are once again backing an under in this series.
Sports Insights Bet Signals have revealed six waves of sharp action landing on the under — with no sign of any over buyback as of the early afternoon.
Sharp Action edge: Under
Big Money
As these offenses seem to only know how to combine for 12 runs, the public is packing the over train to the brink thus far today. Eighty-four percent of bets that have landed on the total have come on the over.
But despite that heavy majority, those bettors have accounted for just 21% of the early money distribution. That means the under is drawing much bigger bets — the one more likely to come from sharps.
Big Money edge: Under
PRO Systems
While it hasn't proved true in this series, historically speaking, a heavily-backed over in a game between two winning teams is good news for the under.
In fact, such games in which the over receives at least 65% of bets have hit the under at a 55.1% clip on a sample of more than 2,600 games, which makes this one a match for our PRO System: Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams.
PRO Systems: Under
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