Red Sox vs. Astros MLB Odds, Picks: ALCS Game 6 Player Props Betting Guide, Including Xander Bogaerts (October 22)

Red Sox vs. Astros MLB Odds, Picks: ALCS Game 6 Player Props Betting Guide, Including Xander Bogaerts (October 22) article feature image
Credit:

Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images. Pictured: Xander Bogaerts watches his home run in ALCS Game 6.

  • Xander Bogaerts has been a big part of the Red Sox's offense as they marched through the season and playoffs this year.
  • He has an appealing matchup tonight against Houston's Luis Garcia as he looks to lead Boston to a Game 7 in the ALCS.
  • Continue reading for a player prop pick on Bogaerts and analysis on why he's primed to put on a show tonight in Houston.

The Astros have dominated the last two games of this series, winning by a combined score of 18-3.

Despite how anemic the Boston offense has been, I’m prepared to back a Boston bat today. And our Action PRO projections have found value on one in particular.

So, read on for our team’s favorite player prop for Game 6 of the ALCS.

MLB Player Props & Picks

Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 RBIs (+180)

Red Sox vs. Astros Red Sox (+100)
Time 8:08 p.m. ET
Best Line DraftKings

Manager Alex Cora has two 1-through-4 lineup combinations he uses, based on whether the opposing starter is a lefty or a righty. When it’s a righty, he’ll run with:

  • Kyle Schwarber (L)
  • Enrique Hernández (R)
  • Rafael Devers (L)
  • Xander Bogaerts (R)

I expect Cora to put out this lineup card today, as he did in Game 2 when the Sox faced Luis Garcia.  When facing a southpaw, Cora will swap those so his lineup goes R/L/R/L.

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But that’s beside the point. When Bogaerts is batting cleanup, he not only has more opportunities to drive the three guys in, he also just hits better in general.

  • 2021 Bogaerts batting 3rd: .271 BA, .789 OPS, 23 RBIs in 47 G (48%)
  • 2021 Bogaerts batting 4th: .307 BA, .901 OPS, 56 RBIs in 96 G (58%)

This could be correlated with the fact that Bogaerts hits better against RHPs, posting a .887 OPS against that side compared to a .818 OPS against the left side.

But either way, it’s significant enough of an edge for me to bet.

In fact, it’s exactly a 16% edge, per our Action PRO report, which has Bogaerts projected at 0.7 RBIs even though we’re getting over 0.5 at 2-to-1 odds.

The Boston bats have been cold, but there’s clearly positive value here. I’m willing to make a smaller-sized, half-unit wager on Bogaerts to record an RBI in Game 6.

It might be his last opportunity until 2022.

Action PRO Grade: B+

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