Tuesday MLB Odds, Preview, Prediction for Reds vs. Twins: Value on Game Total in Subpar Pitching Matchup (June 22)
Denis Poroy/Getty Images. Pictured: Wade Miley.
- In a rare episode of Tuesday afternoon baseball, the Reds and Twins finish a quick interleague set at Target Field.
- Veteran Wade Miley will start for Cincinnati, while rookie Bailey Ober looks to impress in his fifth career start.
- Jeff Hicks breaks down the matchup and delivers his best bet below.
Reds vs. Twins Odds
|Over/Under||9.5 (+100 / -120)|
|Time||Tuesday, 1:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds updated Tuesday at 10 a.m. ET and via DraftKings|
Two offensively charged teams with less-than-ideal pitching situations continue their interleague matchup as the only day game on Tuesday.
The Cincinnati Reds and Minnesota Twins each sat in 4th place in their respective Central divisions starting this brief two-game set on Monday, but both have different paths going forward. They each enter Tuesday over .500 in their last 10 games and look to keep a solid run of play going.
Let’s break the matchup down.
One of the positives for the Reds has been pitcher Wade Miley. The lefty has erased a miserable 2020 and reverted back to his 2018-19 numbers.
Miley’s biggest improvement has been cutting down on walks, something the Twins do not like to do (7.9% walk rate at home against lefties). His 3.09 road ERA is higher than at home, but that’s skewed by an eight-run thumping in Colorado.
Miley has survived on a .254 BABIP and cannot continue to 31% Hard Hit rate and 5.8% Barrel percentage.
The southpaw can get a lot of help from his teammates at the plate, but there is concern when they bat against righties away from home. Like many road offenses, the Reds have struggled against right-handed pitching and are middle of the pack despite an 89 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+). Cincinnati also puts the ball in play a lot by only walking 7.6% percent of the time and striking out 20.7%.
Minnesota’s defense is rated 26th in Defensive WAR, a reason to like one of the better offenses in baseball despite a so-so road effort.
The Twins offense sets up nicely against Miley. They are top 10 in average, slugging, OPS, ISO, home run-to-fly ball ratio, Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA), Weighted On Base Average (wOBA) and wRC+ against left-handers at home. Nelson Cruz entered the series with a .686 slugging percentage against southpaws.
Bailey Ober has been solid in four starts despite barely averaging over four innings per outing. He has struck out 11.12 batters per nine and has a tough task against an offense that does not swing and miss often. It has also been impressive for Ober to keep a 3.71 ERA with a rollercoaster ride up to a 4.67 Expected ERA (xERA), only to go down to a 3.30 Expected Fielder Independent Pitching (xFIP).
Ober will get as many innings as he can handle Tuesday and going forward as the Twins bet on him to be a piece of their rotation going forward. Minnesota, as a whole, has a 2.7 Pitching fWAR, third worst in baseball.
I do not think it is a reach to say both offenses can buck their positive/negative ways in a day game after a night game. Both are under .500 in day games, a positive sign for over bettors like myself.
With the moneyline odds a dead heat, I like betting over 9.5 runs. Neither team has a record of winning when the sun shines and have been mild-to-major disappointments in 2021.
Betting on offense is the way to lean. There is more to gain without either team favored.
Pick: Over 9.5 runs (add Twins with a positive ML if home underdogs)
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