Saturday’s MLB Over/Under: Anthony DeSclafani Returns to South Beach

MLB Betting: Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins

• Over/Under: 7.5
• First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Probable Pitchers: Anthony DeSclafani (7-6, 4.92 ERA) vs. Jose Urena (7-12, 4.21 ERA)

Zylbert's 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 96-70-4, +18.60 units

Yesterday's Result: Twins-Athletics Under 8.5, Berrios vs. Hendriks (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

There's no question it can be difficult handicapping a game near the end of the season that involves two losing teams wrapping up an unsuccessful campaign.

Undoubtedly, this weekend's series between the 60-93 Marlins and 66-89 Reds — two of the three worst National League clubs — fits that bill.

But the starting pitching matchup in this third contest of a four-game set from Marlins Park has a lot to like from a betting perspective.

After all, one of the probable starters going this evening, Anthony DeSclafani, will pitch against the organization that he broke into the major leagues with for the first time since being traded four years ago. Thus, you know he won't simply be going through the motions.

That's important when taking on the offense that ranks last in baseball in runs scored. It's also important that DeSclafani doesn't look like he'll be phased by facing his former club, as the 28-year-old right-hander even acknowledged it won't "feel like I'm facing a former team," according to comments he made to Cincinnati.com.

DeSclafani also confessed: "I might have made three starts [in Miami]. I don't even remember. I think I might have pitched on the road more than I pitched here in Marlins Park. Nothing special."

As I've said before, DeSclafani is actually a solid big-league pitcher. While his 4.92 ERA may not indicate that, this is a guy that can contribute quality pitching on a regular basis. He recently had a stretch where he yielded three runs or fewer in five consecutive starts.

Despite a relatively disappointing year — considering he was 14-7 with a 3.82 ERA in a breakout campaign in 2017 — Jose Urena has still managed to turn things around and is now enjoying his best run of the season.
Since being mired with a 3-12 record on Aug. 12, the four-year veteran has picked it up in the last several weeks, going 4-0 in his last five starts — one of them also being his first career complete game. In this span, he's churned out an impressive 2.16 ERA.

Urena enters his 30th assignment of 2018 having held the opposition to exactly one run in each of his last three outings. He'll be in a position to contribute something similar on this night, considering he'll be in his home digs.

For his career, Urena's ERA is almost a full run lower at Marlins Park (4.11 ERA) compared to on the road (5.06).

With this under bet, wait up until first pitch to see if the line returns to 8. Even if it does not, it's still worth taking at 7.5.

Play: UNDER 7.5/8