Wake and Rake: Sharp Bettors All Over Mets-Phillies Matchup
Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola
- Sharp bettors are targeting tonight's New York Mets-Philadelphia Phillies (6:05 p.m. ET) matchup in early Friday MLB betting.
- Public bettors are betting the opposite side of today's Wake and Rake matchup, paving the way for plenty of wiseguy action.
- Not only are sharps on this game, but intangibles also point toward over value in Mets-Phillies, even with two aces pitching.
As the kids say these days, it’s been a hot minute since my last Wake and Rake column.
The combination of one newborn and the terrible twos means it’s been slow-going here at WnR headquarters, especially during the incredibly slow summer sports calendar.
However, that is all about to change.
Baby girl is starting to sleep, and football is right around the corner, meaning there will be plenty of games for sharps to pick apart and, in turn, an increase in opportunities for us to pinpoint early line value.
I highly recommend downloading The Action Network’s mobile app to not only get notifications every time I enter a Wake and Rake bet, but to also access a wealth of proprietary live betting data and the ability to track your own picks.
Tonight’s New York Mets-Philadelphia Phillies (6:05 p.m. ET) game is drawing both professional and public action and, wouldn’t you know it, both sides disagree on where the value lies.
The over/under for tonight’s Mets-Phillies matchup opened at 7 at BookMaker.eu. And with Noah Syndergaard taking on Aaron Nola, recreational bettors have jumped on the under.
While 65% of tickets are expecting a low-scoring game, 54% of dollars wagered have instead played the over, which explains why the over/under has been pushed up to 7.5 (over -120).
Sports Insights’ Bet Signals confirm that it is, in fact, sharp over money driving this line movement.
A Steam Move at Heritage was triggered at 10:54 p.m. ET Thursday, confirming that early professional action is responsible for the move to 7.5.
Steam is defined as sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
It’s important to note that CRIS, a market-setting sportsbook that accepts high-limit wagers from professional bettors, was one of a handful of books to move its over/under as part of the “steam,” providing us another indicator that the over is currently the sharp side of this matchup.
In addition to what we can glean from the betting market, a steady 8- to 11-mph breeze blowing out to dead center is in the forecast, which is certainly an advantage for over bettors.