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Freedman’s Favorite Strikeout Props (Apr. 10): Fade Jack Flaherty vs. Dodgers?


Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jack Flaherty

  • Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring at least one of his favorite bets for each day of 2019.
  • On Wednesday, he looks at MLB pitcher strikeout props for the 13-game slate.

Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.

In this piece, I’m looking at pitcher props for Wednesday, April 10, which has provided us with a bountiful 13-game slate. NOTE: I will update this piece throughout the day.

For more daily player props, follow me in The Action Network app.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

523-396-31, +83.88 Units

  • NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
  • NBA: 250-189-5, +34.22 Units
  • NHL: 66-80-7, -7.57 Units
  • MLB: 27-26-6, -3.11 Units
  • Golf: 5-7-1, -1.00 Units
  • NASCAR: 6-8-0, -0.83 Units
  • NCAAB: 125-70-12, +38.82 Units
  • NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
  • Exotic: 23-2-0, +12.64 Units

Freedman’s Favorite Pitcher Props for Wednesday, April 10

I haven’t started off the year all that hot with my MLB player props — but I tweaked my research and selection process yesterday and went 6-0-1.

And now I’m basically the Ken Griffey Jr. of strikeout props. Let’s do this.

Please note that in some cases I might be going against what’s recommended in the FantasyLabs Props Tool and the strikeout projections we have in the FantasyLabs MLB Models.

Chicago White Sox Pitcher Reynaldo López vs. Tampa Bay Rays

  • Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
  • Pick: Over 5.5 (+127)

This comes with a caveat: There is the potential for precipitation. Bet this only if the forecast clears up before game time (less than a 10% chance of precipitation in the FantasyLabs Models). Otherwise, stay away, because López could be pulled early in the event of a rain delay.

López doesn’t overpower with his career mark of 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings, and he has a horrid 10.00 ERA across his two starts this year. But the Rays have the third-most strikeouts per game this year with 10.25.

I’d bet the over to +100, weather permitting.

San Francisco Giants Pitcher Dereck Rodriguez vs. San Diego Padres

  • Time: 3:45 p.m. ET
  • Pick: Over 4.5 (-130)

Rodriguez has just seven strikeouts across his two 2019 starts, but he has a tolerable 6.7 strikeouts per nine innings for his career. The Padres are near the bottom of the league with just 3.58 runs per game, so Rodriguez should be able to stay in the game long enough to get five-plus Ks. The Padres have allowed opposing starters to average 5.6 strikeouts per game this year.

I’d bet the over to -145.

Philadelphia Phillies Pitcher Nick Pivetta vs. Washington Nationals

  • Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
  • Pick: Under 6.0 (-114)

Pivetta has a good 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings across his career, and the Nationals have the fourth-most strikeouts per game this year with 10.1, but I doubt Pivetta will last long enough to get more than 6 Ks. He has a subpar 6.52 ERA and 6.08 FIP, and the Nationals are seventh with 5.9 runs per game.

I’d bet the under to -135.

Minnesota Twins Pitcher Jake Odorizzi at New York Mets

  • Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
  • Pick: Over 5.5 (+114)

Odorizzi had just one strikeout in his last start, but since last season he has 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings, and the Mets have a league-high 10.7 strikeouts per game this year.

I’d bet the over to -110.

St. Louis Cardinals Pitcher Jack Flaherty vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
  • Pick: Under 6.0 (-114)

Flaherty has a strong 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings for his career. But he’s failed to get more than six Ks in either of his 2019 starts, and the Dodgers are a plate-disciplined team with just 7.2 strikeouts per game, the third-lowest mark in the league.

I’d bet the under to -140.

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

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