Freedman’s Favorite Strikeout Prop (Apr. 28): Fade Chris Sale Into Eternity
Mark J. Rebilas, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Chris Sale
- Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring at least one of his favorite bets for each day of 2019.
- On Sunday, he looks at his No. 1 pitcher strikeout prop for the 15-game MLB slate.
Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.
In this piece, I highlight my favorite pitcher prop for Sunday, April 28, which offers a 15-game slate.
Freedman’s Favorite Pitcher Prop for Sunday, April 28
Boston Red Sox Pitcher Chris Sale vs. Tampa Bay Rays
- Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
- Pick: Under 8.5 (-125)
The Rays have the second-most strikeouts in the league with 10.04 per game. This is a good matchup for Sale, who averaged an absurd 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings in 2014-18.
But this isn’t 2014-18.
In 2019, Sale has just 24 strikeouts in 23 innings. For a normal human who pitches in the MLB, that’s more than respectable. For Sale, it’s not good.
In his last start, he did get back on track with 10 strikeouts, but he’s 4-1-0 to the under in his five starts this year, and going back to last year’s postseason, he’s had more than eight strikeouts just once in his past 10 games.
His arm has looked dead since last September, and this is coming from a guy who once hit 60 miles per hour on the radar gun in high school, no big deal.
I’d bet under 8.5 strikeouts into eternity — or at least to -180.
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