Freedman’s Favorite Strikeout Props (Apr. 9): Fade Freddy Peralta vs. Angels?
Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Freddy Peralta
- Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring at least one of his favorite bets for each day of 2019.
- On Tuesday, he looks at MLB pitcher strikeout props for the 14-game slate.
Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.
In this piece, I’m looking at pitcher props for Tuesday, April 9, which has provided us with a bountiful 14-game slate. NOTE: I might update this piece throughout the day.
For more strikeout prop analysis, see Mark Gallant’s pitcher piece.
For more daily player props, follow me in The Action Network app.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
511-391-30, +78.57 Units
- NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
- NBA: 244-184-5, +33.81 Units
- NHL: 66-80-7, -7.57 Units
- MLB: 21-26-5, -8.02 Units
- Golf: 5-7-1, -1.00 Units
- NASCAR: 6-8-0, -0.83 Units
- NCAAB: 125-70-12, +38.82 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
- Exotic: 23-2-0, +12.64 Units
Freedman’s Favorite Pitcher Props for Tuesday, April 9
Here are a few of the pitcher props I like for today. Please note that in some cases I’m directly going against what’s recommended in the FantasyLabs Props Tool and the strikeout projections we have in the FantasyLabs MLB Models. What can I say? I’m a rebel.
Miami Marlins Pitcher Jose Urena at Cincinnati Reds
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Pick: Over 4.0 (+100)
Last year, Urena struck out at least four batters in 21 of his 31 games (67.7%), and the Reds have an MLB-worst .233 on-base percentage: Urena should be able to pitch five-plus innings.
I’d bet the over to -120.
Minnesota Twins Pitcher Kyle Gibson at New York Mets
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Pick: Over 4.5 (-156)
In his lone start this year, Gibson managed just two strikeouts in 4.2 innings, but last year he had five-plus strikeouts in 23 of his 32 games (71.9%), and the Mets have a league-high 11.0 strikeouts per game this year.
I’d bet the over to -185.
New York Yankees Pitcher Jonathan Loaisiga at Houston Astros
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Pick: Over 4.5 (+127)
Loaisiga has just five MLB starts to his name, and he’s facing a strong Astros lineup, but the rookie can bring it: For his career, he has 37 strikeouts in 28.2 innings. If he can get through five innings, I like his chances to hit the over.
I’d bet the over to +100.
Atlanta Braves Pitcher Max Fried at Colorado Rockies
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Pick: Under 5.5 (-167)
Fried has just 10 MLB starts in his career, and although he has an excellent 2.94 ERA, it’s not hard to envision him getting roughed up and pulled early: Coors Field has very hitter-friendly weather today. In his 10 starts, he’s averaged 4.8 strikeouts.
I’d bet the under to -185.
Arizona Diamondbacks Pitcher Zack Greinke vs. Texas Rangers
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Pick: Over 6.5 (-114)
Since joining the Diamondbacks in 2016, Greinke has averaged 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings. Facing an American League team, Greinke should have a couple of gimme at-bats against non-hitting pitchers, and the Rangers have historically been a strikeout-heavy team.
I’d bet the over to -140.
Milwaukee Brewers Pitcher Freddy Peralta at Los Angeles Angels
- Time: 10:07 p.m. ET
- Pick: Under 5.5 (-114)
Peralta has been a K machine in his short career, averaging 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings. In his two starts this year, he’s wrung up 14 batters. But the Angels have a league-low 5.5 strikeouts per game, and for years have been one of MLB’s most plate-disciplined teams.
I’d bet the under to -140.
Boston Red Sox Pitcher Chris Sale vs. Toronto Blue Jays
- Time: 2:00 p.m. ET
- Pick: Under 8.0 (-156)
Sale has just five strikeouts on nine innings this year, and his arm has looked dead since last September. In fact, since then, he hasn’t had more than eight strikeout in any of his 11 starts (including the postseason).
I’d bet the under to -175.