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Red Sox vs. Yankees Picks: Our Best Bets For Sunday Night Baseball

Red Sox vs. Yankees Picks: Our Best Bets For Sunday Night Baseball article feature image

Mike Stobe/Getty Images. Pictured: Yankee Stadium

  • The Red Sox and Yankees face off on Sunday Night Baseball.
  • Find out how our experts are betting the primetime matchup below.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds: Sunday Night Baseball

Chris Mazza (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. J.A. Happ (0-1, 10.29 ERA)

Red Sox moneyline +138 [Bet Now]
Yankees moneyline -160 [Bet Now]
Red Sox run line +1.5 (-136) [Bet Now]
Yankees run line -1.5 (+116) [Bet Now]
Over/under 10 (u-112)
Time 7:08 p.m. ET

Odds via FanDuel. Get up to a $500 risk-free bet at FanDuel today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

The greatest rivalry in baseball takes the Sunday Night Baseball slot this evening, as the Yankees will look to complete a sweep of the Red Sox in the Bronx.

To do so, they’ll likely need a win out of J.A. Happ, who’s been not-so-great to start the year. They will, however, get to face Chris Mazza in his first career start,

So will the lack of strong pitching matchup lead to a high-scoring game? Our experts, Collin Wilson and BJ Cunningham, debate below.

Our Picks for Red Sox vs. Yankees

Collin Wilson: Under 10

  • Odds available at FanDuel [Bet Now]

There are a number of factors that may lead to low scoring as the Red Sox try to steal one in Yankee Stadium. Our Umpire trends do not lean either way with Ryan Assiton — 33-19 (63.5% 4.30 units) for home teams and 27-23 (54.0% 5.35 units) to the under — behind the plate. The weather may be of biggest concern with 10 mph winds blowing in from left field.

J.A. Happ may have been terrible so far in 2020, but Boston has the 27th-worst walk rate against lefties. A BABIP of .321 is top-5 in the league and should see some regression. As for the Yankees, they will get righty Chris Mazza who made an appearance two weeks ago in Yankee Stadium. The 30-year-old minor-league lifer went 2.2 innings, giving up just one hit.

The Yankees will be without their main source of offensive firepower. Aaron Judge is on the 10-day DL, Giancarlo Stanton is out with a hamstring and DJ LeMahieu is day-to-day with a sprained thumb. To help matters regarding the under, Aroldis Chapman is set to join the roster tonight after sitting out with COVID-19.

BJ Cunningham: Over 9.5

  • Odds available at DraftKings [Bet Now]

Boston’s offense has been pretty average to begin the season with a .318 wOBA and 97 wRC+. However, it’s been a little better against left-handed pitching, with a .335 wOBA and 109 wRC+.

Chris Mazza spent seven years in the minors before getting the call to the big leagues last season with the Mets. His 16.1 innings didn’t go too well as he posted a 5.52 ERA and 5.41 xFIP. He mainly uses a three-pitch combination of sinker, cutter and slider, but they aren’t very effective. The Yankees haven’t struggled against any pitch type so far this season and have been crushing righties, so I don’t expect Mazza to last very long Sunday night.

The Yankees have been mashing the ball through their first 16 games, as they lead baseball with a .358 wOBA and 129 wRC+. They’ve been crushing home runs left and right, with 35 already on the season.

They’ve been doing most of their damage against right-handed pitching as they have a .361 wOBA and 132 wRC+, which leads the majors.

J.A. Happ has been a disaster through his first two starts allowing eight earned runs in only seven innings pitched. He’s already surrendered three home runs, which seems to be a recurring theme for Happ as his HR/9 rate in 2019 was 1.90.

In 2019, J.A. Happ was starting to show his age. The 37-year-old posted a 4.78 ERA/5.22 FIP/4.78 xFIP — his worst numbers in more than five years. Happ is predominantly a fastball pitcher, but has three complimentary pitches that play well off his fastball.

Since he is getting up there in age, his fastball is losing its velocity and effectiveness. In 2019, his fastball yielded 25 home runs and a .367 wOBA. For Happ’s secondary pitches to be effective, he has to be precise with his fastball, otherwise he’ll continue to post high ERA and xFIP numbers in 2020.

With two bad starting pitchers on the mound, I think we’ll see a lot of runs scored on Sunday night. I have the total projected at 10.90 runs, so I think there is some value on Over 9.5 runs.

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