Texas Rangers vs. San Diego Padres Odds & Picks: Is the Underdog Worth a Look? (August 20)
Denis Poroy, Getty Images. Pictured: Dinelson Lamet
Rangers vs. Padres Betting Odds
|Rangers Odds||+170 [Bet Now]|
|Padres Odds||-189 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||8.5 (-106/-115) [Bet Now]|
|First Pitch||8:10 p.m. ET|
The Rangers are in danger of being swept in a home-and-home series with the Padres. San Diego won yesterday in walk-off fashion when Manny Machado hit a grand slam in the bottom of the 10th inning after fouling off four pitches in the at-bat.
Whether it’s Fernando Tatis Jr. one night or Machado another, the Rangers haven’t seemed to figure out how to thwart one of the most dynamic duos in all of baseball. Texas has been outscored 26-11 in the three games against the Padres and I’ve yet to see many signs that would suggest anything different for tonight.
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One thing you could say about the Texas Rangers is that they’re definitely a streaky team.
Texas has won at least three consecutive games twice this season and has lost three games in a row already three times. The Rangers are on a four-game losing streak and they’ll look to right-handed pitcher, Kyle Gibson, to try to stop the bleeding.
Gibson is 1-2 thus far with a 3.74 ERA. He’s had some success by increasing his GB/FB ratio from 2.16 last year up to 2.57 this season. That improvement likely came in handy in his last start while pitching in the the hitter-friendly Coors Field, when he allowed just two runs on seven hits in a 6-4 win.
The Rangers can only hope that accomplishment will serve Gibson well in his next start.
San Diego Padres
Gibson will be opposed by Dinelson Lamet in the series finale. Lamet is 1-2 with 1.59 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. While his 2.79 FIP is strong, because its higher than his ERA suggests a possible slight regression in his performance possible in the future.
Lamet only has a .62 GB/FB ratio but his venom is the strikeout. He’s averaging 11.44 strikeouts per nine innings and he’s able to do so with only three pitches. According to Baseball Savant, Lamet throws a slider (51.3% usage), four-seam fastball (30.5% usage) and sinker (18.1% usage).
It’s rare when you have a pitcher who throws an off-speed pitch more than his fastball but Lamet’s slider isn’t your average one. Batters are hitting just .130 off that pitch with a whiff rate of 47.6%.
This is a wipe out pitch and he uses it to put hitters away 33% of the time.
San Diego opened as -185 favorites and the public seems to be getting behind them as their odds have risen throughout the day despite a higher percentage of the money siding with the dog.
This tells me that sharp bettors have zeroed in on the Rangers for this matchup. They’re betting that the Rangers won’t get swept tonight in the home-and-home series but I just can’t make a case to back the dog in this spot without figuring how Texas is going to get some runs across the plate against Lamet.
The Rangers are 27th in the league with a below average wRC rating of 83 while the Padres are fourth in the league with a 133 value despite playing their home games in a park that favors pitchers. The sharps can continue to back trendy underdogs, but this bettor isn’t buying it.
My model makes San Diego a -196 favorite so I’m right in line with the market. I would need odds of +177 or better to consider the dog in this spot and odds at -196 or better to back the favorite. BetMGM is offering the Rangers at +170 and the Padres at -189. While I should be inclined to bet San Diego at -189, I’m not in love with laying 2-1 on my money.
At the current price I would prefer to wait to see if I could get better than +177 on the dog.
The Pick: Texas (only at +177 or better)