MLB Friday Weather: Expect Strong Hitting Conditions for Tigers-Braves

MLB Friday Weather: Expect Strong Hitting Conditions for Tigers-Braves article feature image
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Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mike Foltynewicz.

  • Temperatures in the 80s and a stiff breeze blowing out to left-center won't help pitchers for tonight's Tigers-Braves game (7:20 p.m. ET).
  • Using The Action Network's betting tools, we break down how these conditions could impact the game.

Tonight in Atlanta, home of T.I. and filming location of T.I.’s movie ATL, the Braves host the Tigers in an Interleague affair for the ages. Well, likely a forgettable Interleague affair if we’re being honest, but oh well.

Breakout arm Spencer Turnbull gets the nod for Detroit, while Mike Foltynewicz will look to post his third quality outing in a row after a ghastly start to the season.

Detroit Tigers (S. Turnbull) at Atlanta Braves (M. Foltynewicz)

7:20 p.m. ET | Over/Under: 9 (o-115)

Both pitchers will be tasked with keeping the ball in the confines of SunTrust Park on a warm and windy night. Temps will range from 77-84 degrees, while winds will be blowing to left-center at 8-12 mph. These elements help combine for a Weather Rating of 69, third highest of the slate behind the games in Colorado and Arizona.

In the park’s short history, overs have done well at SunTrust in situations like tonight. As a whole, overs are just 85-95-10 (47.2%) at the ballpark, but they’re 37-28-6 (56.9%) when the wind is blowing out, to left or to right.

They do a hair better when the temperature is above 80 degrees, though the sample size gets cut down even smaller, and honestly too small of a number.

After opening at 9, this over/under actually fell to 8.5 before being steamed back up to its opening number.

Foltynewicz’s troubles have stemmed from dongs this year, but like I said, he seems to have put his major troubles behind him. Two starts ago in Milwaukee, he allowed two runs in six innings, though both came from solo shots.

Last start, he allowed no homers and just one unearned run in six innings. It was his first start of the year in which he did not allow a dinger, and he also struck out seven hitters.

After punching out nearly 10 batters per nine innings last year, he’s down below seven K/9 this year and that includes his solid last start. At 26.3%, the Tigers team strikeout rate is second highest in the league, so Folty may be able to keep that K/9 ticking up tonight — something that winds won’t be able to turn into runs.

A few other concerns:

  • Interleague games have historically favored the under, with nearly 52% of unders hitting since 2005 and and a crazy 56.4% hitting last year. I’d reckon the reasoning is that the unfamiliarity of the opponents gives pitchers the advantage over hitters.
  • The Tigers bats have the fourth-highest fly ball rate as a team, but the lowest HR/FB rate. Perhaps their weak fly balls will get much-needed boosts by tonight’s breezes.
  • The Braves have the fourth-lowest fly ball rate as a team, which may be surprising considering some of the pop in their lineup. Their HR/FB rate is in the top 10, but they could have trouble lifting the ball against Turnbull, who has a groundball rate of nearly 50%.

Maybe those concerns will scare you off, but not I, as I have taken the over 9 at -105 juice. While writing this, the juice on the over has gone from -105 to -115, which I would still take.