Tigers vs Dodgers Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Monday, September 18
Via Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: Mookie Betts #50 of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the seventh inning at Dodger Stadium on September 02, 2023 in Los Angeles, California.
Tigers vs. Dodgers Odds
The Dodgers will hope to avoid a letdown as they return home having clinched the NL West over the weekend in Seattle.
Lance Lynn (5.94 ERA, 166 and 2/3 IP) will look to follow up his quality outing against the Padres and make a case to be in the Dodgers' playoff rotation. He will face off against Tigers starter Eduardo Rodriguez (3.32 ERA, 135 and 2/3 IP), who has also struggled down the stretch.
Find a betting preview, pick and prediction for Tigers vs. Dodgers below.
Eduardo Rodriguez's form has tailed off considerably since his dominant start to the season. He owns a 4.08 ERA in 64 innings since the All-Star break, with a concerning 1.31 WHIP. Over the last 10 starts, his xFIP has averaged 4.87, which is a stark regression to his season-long mark. His xwOBA has also risen considerably over the last 100 plate appearances and now sits well above the league average at .349.
Rodriguez owns a Stuff+ of 84, and that number is in line with his below-average Chase and Whiff Rates this season. His arsenal has also been considerably less effective when facing the order for the third time in a game. His 14% Strikeout Rate going through the order for a third time is 10th-lowest among starters who have pitched over 120 innings this season.
Lance Lynn has had somewhat of a rollercoaster start to his Dodgers career. He has a 4.60 ERA through 47 innings as he has mixed in dominant outings with some dreadful ones. He has allowed a Hard-hit Rate of 40.1% this season and owns a 4.94 xERA.
Last time out versus the Padres, Lynn allowed just two earned runs from five hits across seven innings of work. He did allow an xFIP of 6.10, which was actually a considerable improvement from his recent marks versus Miami (8.32), Atlanta (7.94) and Boston (7.30).
At some point, his HR/9 is due to improve close to his career average, but through 166 innings, Lynn still owns a HR/9 of 2.21. His 41 home runs allowed this season are the most in the majors.
The Dodgers' well-balanced lineup owns relatively even splits along with a wRC+ of 116 against lefties. Their 0.48 BB/K versus lefties ranks second in baseball.
Tigers vs. Dodgers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Both Lance Lynn and Eduardo Rodriguez have been hit hard recently, and the eight-run total in this matchup gives them too much respect.
Lynn over-performed in his quality outing versus San Diego when considering the high level of hard contact, and it was still his most encouraging start in weeks.
Eduardo Rodriguez's performance has dipped for a considerably large sample now, and his better outings have consisted of taking advantage of favorable matchups for left-handed pitchers. Unfortunately for him, the Dodgers are a nightmare matchup for lefties.
Both of these pitchers are better than we have seen recently, yet it's still hard to see how this total is set at eight and not at least 8.5. Betting the over at eight at anything better than -125 odds provides value.
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