Marky’s Tuesday MLB Forecast: Coors Returns with Slate’s Highest Weather Rating

Jul 24, 2018 12:16 PM EDT
  • The Astros head to Coors Field to take on the Rockies, with Denver taking back its top spot in the Weather Ratings.
  • The Mets game looks like a strong hitting environment to the layperson, but the model says otherwise.
  • Baltimore and Philadelphia have the worst rain threats of the day.

There was plenty of rain last night, including the first rain-shortened game in a while. Hopefully anyone who was on the fence about Corey Kluber didn’t play him due to the rain threat because he was gosh dang awful.


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Tonight also has rain. Apparently it’s monsoon season on the East Coast. It’s also still humid as the dickens out, so balls could be flying tonight.

Our Weather Rating distills the hitter-friendliness for a particular game into one number. It is a proprietary Fantasy Labs model and shown on a scale of 0 to 100. The Weather Rating does not account for potential rainouts; rather, it simply examines all relevant atmospheric conditions (temperature, altitude, wind speed, humidity, and so on) to determine how batted-ball distance will be impacted.

Highest Weather Ratings

  • Astros at Rockies: 87
  • Athletics at Rangers: 66
  • White Sox at Angels: 62

Coors is back, baby. With the Astros in town, no less. I reckon they’ll be pretty frickin highly owned. It’s not a perfect game in Denver, but a high 80s rating is nothing to scoff at. With Gerrit Cole facing off against Tyler Anderson, the total has dropped from 10.5 to 10, as the majority of bets and dollars are on the under.

Texas has been dethroned and quite easily, I may add. Although the temps are still in the 90s in Arlington, the Weather Rating is just in the mid-60s. This total is a wee bit higher — 10.5 at Pinnacle and 11 at Bookmaker.

It’s a scohchah out in Anaheim today, and both offenses are going to see a boost in what is generally a pitcher’s park. Although the game is starting out in the high 80s, it should end in the mid- to upper 70s. However, sharp bettors clearly don’t give a darn because there are almost twice as many dollars on the under than there are bets, helping push the total from 9 to 8.5.

Lowest Weather Ratings

  • Giants at Mariners: 32
  • Padres at Mets: 44
  • Tigers at Royals: 45

Seattle is posting the lowest rating by far and at just 7.5, is tied for the second-lowest total of the day. The lowest total is in New York, where Zack Wheeler and the Mets are hosting the Padres.

To the naked eye, the humid conditions with winds blowing out to left appear good for bats, but our model doesn’t quite agree. Forty-four isn’t terrible, but it’s not good, either. This total has seen betting action similar to that of the Angels game and has moved from 7.5 to 7 at Bookmaker as a result.


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Rain

All right, here’s the fun part where I predict exactly when and where God’s tears will fall from the sky.

Red Sox at Orioles

This is looking like a very serious postponement possibility. There’s a flash-flood warning that expires before the game, but a flash-flood watch that lasts until tomorrow night. There’s more than a 50% chance of thunderstorms for every hour starting at game time and lasting all night, so some luck will be needed. They’ll probably try to get it in because tomorrow is also going to have some storms throughout the day, so a doubleheader is unlikely.

Dodgers at Phillies

Philly will also be dealing with that weather system, but it shouldn’t be quite as bad there. The precip chance is lower at first pitch and gets worse as the night progresses, so there’s a possibility of another rain-shortened affair tonight.

Three other games have slight chances at a storm, but likely nothing that will postpone or cut the game short:

  • Padres at Mets
  • Pirates at Indians
  • Astros at Rockies
Credit:

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Colorado Rockies shortstop Trevor Story (27) celebrates with teammates

Follow Mark Gallant on Twitter
@marky_money

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