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Tuesday’s MLB Over/Under: Junis, Boyd Look To Keep Rolling

Credit:

Kim Klement, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Royals’ pitcher Jakob Junis.

Betting odds: Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals

  • Over/Under: 8.5/9
  • First Pitch: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Probable Pitchers: Matthew Boyd (8-11, 4.09 ERA) vs. Jakob Junis (6-12, 4.70 ERA)

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 86-56-3, +24 units

Yesterday’s Result: Rockies-Angels Over 8, Gray vs. Despaigne (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit


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I took my first over bet in a while last night and it cashed with plenty of room to spare to extend our winning streak to three games. Let’s see if we can make it four on Tuesday night.

Earlier this year I tabbed Junis as a sleeper candidate for 2018. While his overall performance hasn’t been up to par, he’s still had some impressive flashes throughout the season.

Junis has been consistent lately, crafting together a nice run ahead of his 25th start of the season.

The second-year right-hander has pitched at least five innings in each of his last five outings and has allowed no more than two earned runs in each of the last four.

Most importantly, Junis hasn’t surrendered a single home run in any of those last four starts. The Illinois native averages 1.7 home runs allowed per 9 innings, so it’s fair to say the longball has been his undoing in his first full season.

Junis has a favorable matchup on Tuesday, as he’s performed well against the Tigers since his debut. This will be his fifth career start opposite Detroit, and in four of those meetings, he gave up no more than three runs.

Junis has faced the Tigers three times this season, going at least seven innings and yielding two runs or fewer in all.

Overall, he’s pitched more against Detroit than any other club in his still-young career, and has logged a 5-1 record to go with a 3.44 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over 34 innings.

One of the nice things about this under bet and the high line we’ll be working with is that Boyd, the other starter in this series opener, also appears to be in a position this evening to put forth a solid effort.

Just like his counterpart, Boyd has been successful this season versus tonight’s opponent, pitching at least six innings in all three of his meetings with the Royals. In the process, he’s also churned out a very respectable 3.32 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in those assignments.

The four-year veteran has the potential to keep it going on this night considering Kansas City’s struggles against left-handed pitching.

The Royals are tied for the fourth-lowest team batting average (.232) opposite southpaws, and their .647 OPS in that area ranks them second-to-last in baseball. Additionally, they put one over the fence once every 47.1 at-bats, which is second-worst as well.

Boyd also looks like he’s in a groove at the moment, enjoying his best month since May by posting a 3.42 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and .209 batting average against in four August starts. Thus, you have to like the momentum he has right now.

Unfortunately, the over/under line has dropped down to 8.5 from 9 — when I first got it — so I recommend shopping around until you can get it at the latter number. If that isn’t possible for you (which is why it’s crucial to follow me on the app when the pick is first submitted), it’s still worth taking the under at 8.5.

Play: UNDER 8.5/9 

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