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MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox (Monday, Sept. 14)

MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox (Monday, Sept. 14) article feature image

Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images. Pictured: Jose Berrios.

Twins vs. White Sox Odds

Twins Odds -137 [BET NOW]
White Sox Odds +117 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 9 (-118/-104) [BET NOW]
First Pitch 8:10 p.m. ET

Odds as of Sunday night and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Two of the hottest teams in baseball square off Monday night as the Twins send Jose Berrios to the mound to face Dylan Cease. The Twins trail the White Sox by one game, so first place in the AL Central will be on the line.

Advanced Stats Glossary

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP  is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.

BaseRuns is a formula designed to estimate how many runs a team would be expected to score (or allow) given their underlying offensive (or defensive) performance. In other words, BaseRuns is a context-neutral run estimator used to evaluate teams. Major League average for an individual batter per game is 0.50 BaseRuns and a for a pitcher its 0.52 BaseRuns per inning.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins have been solid offensively over the past two weeks, accumulating a .341 wOBA and 114 wRC+. The Twins have done most of their damage against right handed pitching this season, ranking sixth in MLB in terms of wOBA (.335). Nelson Cruz has seemed to have found the fountain of youth, as the 40-year-old has led the Twins with a .441 wOBA, including 15 home runs and 31 RBIs.

The Twins have mainly been successful versus fastballs and changeups this season, which are two of Cease’s three primary pitches, so they should have a good matchup on Monday night.

Twins Probable Starter

Jose Berrios, RHP

Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Berrios hasn’t been very sharp so far this season, accumulating a 4.17 xFIP through 47 innings of work. His biggest issue has by far been his fastball, which has led to a .512 wOBA by opponents. Surprisingly though, he’s thrown his curveball more than any other pitch and he’s been really effective with it, allowing a .145 average to opponents while producing a 39.3% whiff rate.

Berrios does a great job interchanging all of his pitches, but he has trouble with control, as he hangs too many pitches (7.5% meatball rate this year). However, Berrios has some nasty stuff and sometimes it looks like he’s throwing a Wiffle Ball out there. 

In case you forgot how nasty Jose Berrios' curveball was. (Thanks to @zappyalex for the tip!)

— Pitcher List (@PitcherList) March 28, 2019

The White Sox have been crushing both fastballs and curveballs, so Berrios will have a tough matchup on Monday night.

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have been pretty good offensively as of late, checking in with a .334 wOBA and 110 wRC+. Tim Anderson and Jose Abreu have led Chicago offensively, as they both have a wOBA above .400. The reason the White Sox have been so good offensively is because they’ve been successful versus just about every pitch type. The only pitch they do not rank in the top half against is cutters, which Berrios does not have in his arsenal.

The White Sox have been the best team in baseball against left-handed pitching, but they’ve been no slouch against righties either. Chicago ranks ninth against right-handed pitchers in terms of wOBA and should have a good matchup against Berrios on Monday.

White Sox Probable Starter

Dylan Cease, RHP

Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Dylan Cease is due for some negative regression in a major way. His ERA is 3.33, but his xFIP is all the way up up 5.81, indicating he’s been really lucky so far in 2020. Coming out of the minors, Cease was known as a strikeout machine, but so far this season, he hasn’t shown that (5.87 K/9 rate). He’s always been know as someone with control issues and this year has been no exception, as his BB/9 rate is all the way up to 3.91.

Cease has a lot of velocity on his fastball, averaging 97.4 mph and topping out at 100 mph. Even though it has a lot of velocity, it doesn’t have very much movement. Opponents teed off on his heater to the tune of a .448 wOBA last season, but he’s brought that number down to .338 for so far this year.

Cease had success with his curveball and slider in 2019, but he’s been relying on his fastball too often this season. He’ll need it to continue to improve if he wants to develop into an effective starter.


Both bullpens have been fantastic so far this season, ranking in the top half of MLB in ERA and xFIP. They both are fully rested coming into Monday, so it should be a fascinating matchup in the later innings.

Projections and Pick

At the time of writing, I don’t think there is much value on either side or the total. If could find the Twins at -111 or better I would bet them. Conversely, if I could find the White Sox at +135 or better I would play them.

The Pick: Twins -111 or better; White Sox +135 or better

[Bet the White Sox at +135 with a 10% profit boost at DraftKings (now online in Illinois!)]

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