Wednesday MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Mariners-Angels, 2 Totals

Wednesday MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Mariners-Angels, 2 Totals article feature image
Credit:

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Guillermo Heredia (center) celebrates with Dee Gordon

  • Professionals are again betting on the under in Reds-Indians with the wind blowing in from center.
  • The total in Cardinals-White Sox has moved a half-run despite pretty even action on both the over and under.
  • Sharp bettors are fading trendy public play in Mariners-Angels

It’s been one step forward and one step back for the wiseguys so far this week. On Monday the sharps went 2-0, but yesterday they were able to cash only one of their four plays (Blue Jays +117).

The killer was an epically bad beat in Cleveland. Wiseguys got down on the Under 8.5 and the Tribe took a 4-0 lead into the top of the ninth, only to surrender seven runs to the Reds (all with two outs), losing 7-4. Instead of a 2-2 day with slight plus money profit, sharps finished 1-3, losing nearly 2 units. No time to lament heartbreaking losses. As always, wiseguys are onto the next.

After analyzing Wednesday’s 15-game MLB slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:10 p.m., 8:10 p.m. and 10:07 p.m. ET.

Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay the sportsbook in order for them to accept your wager.

Full Sports Betting Glossary

Data as of 2:15 p.m. ET. All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.


Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians Under 9

7:10 p.m. ET

Sharps are looking to avenge their brutal bad beat last night by getting even tonight. Currently 70% of bets are taking the Over, but it accounts for only 53% of dollars, indicating predominantly Average Joe Over money.

Despite the heavy over betting, the juice has moved from 9 Under -110 to 9 Under -116, indicating the books have liability on the under with the next move likely down to 8.5.


Jose Ramirez, Jason Kipnis, Terry Francona and Roberto Perez. Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago White Sox Over 9.5 

8:10 p.m. ET

The Cardinals crushed the White Sox 14-2 last night, with the Over 9.5 cashing without a sweat. Sharps are eyeing another high-scoring game tonight. The Over is getting only 48% of bets but it accounts for 67% of dollars, indicating heavy smart money on the Over. Meanwhile, the total has risen from 9 to 9.5. In a vacuum, a total shouldn’t move a full run if bets are split down the middle.

Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels (-112)

10:07 p.m. ET

The Angels came up huge for the sharps last night. They closed with 46% of bets, 75% of dollars, had sharp reverse line movement -145 to -161 and beat the Mariners 9-3.

The Gambler’s Fallacy says Seattle is a much better team and bound to bounce back tonight. But sharps are fading the trendy dog.

The Angels are getting only 38% of bets, but the line has essentially remained frozen (-113 to -112). This indicates liability on the Angels, with the books reluctant to drop the line toward Seattle and give sharp Halos backers a better number.


Remember: The betting market is fluid. Data changes as more action comes in. For updated odds and percentages, be sure to check out The Action Network MLB betting trends page.

Looking for more in-depth betting analysis? Sign up for a Sports Insights Pro trial and join our Live Betting Hangouts where we break down the board every weeknight from 6:30-7 p.m. ET.

For more betting info and customer support, you can find me on twitter @Josh_Insights.

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