Wednesday’s MLB Over/Under: Battle of Aces Aaron Nola and Stephen Strasburg
Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Washington Nationals starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg (37) pitches against the San Francisco Giants in the first inning at Nationals Park.
Betting odds: Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies
- Over/Under: 7.5
- First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Probable Pitchers: Stephen Strasburg (7-7, 4.04 ERA) vs. Aaron Nola (16-4, 2.29 ERA)
Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 93-63-4, +23.45 units
Yesterday’s Result: Rangers-Angels Over 9, Sampson vs. Johnson (loss)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
The Phillies appeared to be legitimate contenders in the National League East throughout the season, but it looks like they are finally coming apart at the end of it. Philadelphia is 2-7 in September entering Wednesday, which has left them six games out of a potential playoff spot.
Can they start to snap out of it? I don’t see it happening on this night — at least not with the re-emerging Strasburg on the hill.
Save for one start, Strasburg spent the majority of the summer on the disabled list, only coming back for good on Aug. 22, when he took on, coincidentally, these same Phillies.
While his numbers in that start weren’t great (seven hits, five earned runs), he has picked it up in his ensuing three outings, allowing just two earned runs in each. One of those outings came in a rematch with Philadelphia, whom he got the better of with six innings of two-run ball.
We’re going to try to catch Strasburg on a continued upswing, as he does appear to have gotten stronger as he separates further from his lengthy stay on the DL.
Tonight’s turn in the rotation presents a favorable matchup for the first pick of the 2009 draft. Strasburg has gone 11-2 in 23 career starts against the Phils with a 2.50 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 179 strikeouts and just 30 walks in 147.2 innings.
Strasburg’s showing this evening could be the key, as we know what we’ll probably get from Nola, the other ace-caliber starter.
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Nola has been crafting a Cy Young-type year, entering this affair with a brilliant 16-4 record, 2.29 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and .196 batting average against. Additionally, he’s also registering 9.35 K/9 and yielding a career-low 0.62 HR/9.
At Citizens Bank Park, where he’ll be working in this one, the 2014 first-round draft choice has been sensational, with all but two of his 14 home assignments going down as quality starts. In his career, Nola has typically been slightly better in Philadelphia than on the road.
Not only that, the 25-year-old has been just outstanding when going up against the Nationals. In fact, all four of his meetings with Washington this season have clocked in as quality starts, as he’s compiled a 1.26 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and .180 BAA in those games.
There’s no chance this over/under inflates to 8, so you might as well get in your under bet as soon as you can.
Play: UNDER 7.5 (-115)