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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals (Thursday, Sept. 3)

MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals (Thursday, Sept. 3) article feature image

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images. Pictured: Dylan Cease of the Chicago White Sox.

White Sox vs. Royals Betting Odds

White Sox Odds -155 [Bet Now]
Royals Odds +133 [Bet Now]
Over/Under 9.5 (+100/-121) [Bet Now]
First Pitch 8:05 p.m. ET

Odds as of Thursday at 5:15 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

The Chicago White Sox will look to rebound from a disappointing series against the Minnesota Twins on Thursday when they take on the Kansas City Royals.

It was a missed opportunity for the White Sox to create some distance between themselves and the former divisional winners in the AL Central, which would have helped them keep pace with front-running Cleveland.

Now, Chicago must put the past aside and focus its attention on Kansas City.

Pitcher Dylan Cease will get the start for the White Sox, who will face off against Royals southpaw Danny Duffy. Kansas City is a subpar 7-13 in their last 20 games and haven’t won a series since they swept the Twins on August 9th.

And suffice it to say, it won’t get any easier against a White Sox team they’re only 1-5 against this season.

Kansas City Royals

Duffy is 2-2 with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. He has a 4.10 FIP, so his ERA is a good reflection of his true ability this season.

His 2.57 BB/9 ratio and 1.59 HR/9 ratio are at good standing and, overall, his numbers are solid. Opposing batters are only hitting .205 against him and .244 on balls put in play.

The area Duffy seems to struggle is in his ability to go deep into games. He’s been able to complete six innings just once in his seven starts and pitching fewer innings is largely why he has an ERA above four.

Duffy’s last start came against Chicago, when he was only able to make it through 5.2 innings. He gave up four runs (three earned) on seven hits, finishing with a 5.19 ERA for his outing.

Over the course of his career, Duffy is 4-3 with a 5.60 ERA against Chicago.

He’ll face a White Sox lineup that has a .289 BAA/.356 OBP/.430 SLG slash line against him, with six home runs in 242 at-bats.

Chicago White Sox

Cease enters the game with a 4-2 record this season, boasting a 3.00 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. His FIP is more than double his ERA, largely in part due to the fact he has a  2.00 HR/9 ratio and a 4.50 BB/9 ratio.

Batters are only hitting .233 against him and, even when they make contact, haven’t had much success as they’re only hitting .235 on balls put in to play. Somewhat of a streaky pitcher, Cease has had three starts where he’s allowed one walk or less and five starts where he’s yielded one or less home run. He’ll be facing a Royals team that’s ranked 25th in walk rate and 22nd in home runs.

Like Duffy, this will be Cease’s second consecutive start against the same opponent. In his prior appearance against the Royals, he only went 4.1 innings. Despite not going deep enough to qualify for a win, Cease did leave the White Sox with a lead. The Royals ended up rallying for five runs in the seventh inning and two in the eighth to go on to the 9-6 win in Chicago.

Cease gave up one hit in that outing, which came via a fly ball that ended up leaving the park. Outside of that, it was really a lack of command that let him down. He issued six walks to Royals hitters, which drove up his pitch count and led to his departure.

With that start fresh in his mind, he’ll look to exhibit more control this time around. He has had success against this Kansas City lineup with a .220 BAA in 58 plate appearances.

Betting Analysis

When we look at this matchup, we have a pitcher in Cease who has struggled with his control this season, yet has good numbers against the Royals.

On the other hand, Duffy has struggled against the White Sox. The fact he’s a leftie is significant, being the White Sox are a perfect 11-0 against left-handers this season.

The White Sox have also responded well after losses of seven or more runs. Going back to 2019, Chicago is 13-11 for +9.90 units.

Cease certainly looks like his due for some regression, but I think he puts in a better performance against a team which struggles to hit against him that he just faced in his last start.

DraftKings is offering the White Sox moneyline at -155 and I’m willing to risk a half-unit they go to 12-0 against lefties this season.

The Pick: White Sox ML -155 (Play down to +125)

[Bet the White Sox at -155 with a 10% profit boost at DraftKings (now online in Illinois!)]

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