MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins (Wednesday, Sept. 2)
Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images. Pictured: Yoan Moncada (left) and Jose Abreu.
- The Chicago White Sox take on the Minnesota Twins at 8:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday at Target Field. The Twins are the favorite at -157 and the total is set at 9.
- Michael Arinze likes the underdog in Wednesday's matchup, and thinks Twins starter Jose Berrios -- who hasn't looked like his 2019 self -- is overvalued.
- Check out Arinze's full betting preview for White Sox vs. Twins below.
White Sox vs. Twins Betting Odds
|White Sox Odds||+132 [BET NOW]|
|Twins Odds||-157 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||9 (-122/+102) [BET NOW]|
|First Pitch||8:10 p.m. ET|
The White Sox and Twins will play the rubber match of their three-game series at Target Field Wednesday night. Tuesday, the White Sox went ahead early with two runs in the first inning, but the Twins did their damage in the middle innings by scoring a run in each inning between the fifth and the seventh to win the game, 3-2. Chicago nearly tied the game in the sixth off a long fly ball from Edwin Encarnacion, but Twins center fielder Byron Buxton wasn’t having it and climbed the fence to rob him of a home run.
Minnesota’s win puts them 1.5 games behind the White Sox (22-14), who are tied for the division lead with the Indians.
Wednesday’s matchup will be a battle of right-handers, as Reynaldo Lopez of the White Sox is set to take on Jose Berrios of the Twins. Minnesota opened as a -145 favorite and the public has stepped in to push that number to -157.
That number’s gotten a bit steep and it could offer up some value to take the underdog.
Berrios hasn’t quite gotten off to the start he had last year that earned him an invitation to the 2019 All-Star Game. This season, he’s 2-3 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.47 WHIP.
Berrios’ problem has been that his 4.5 BB/9 ratio is almost double that of last year (2.29) and hard-hit balls against him have also jumped to 43.4% from 36.3%. Batters are only hitting .254 against him but they’re hitting .319 on balls put into play. As a result, he’s been slightly unlucky but it hasn’t been by much as evident by his 4.37 FIP, which is only .37 points lower than his ERA.
Berrios has however had success against the White Sox through his career, as he’s 11-2 with a 2.76 ERA in 15 appearances.
But that’s in the past and I don’t see the 2020 version of Berrios worthy of such a premium price as a favorite.
Chicago White Sox
Lopez will look to continue to build up his innings after spending almost four weeks on the IL earlier this season. He’s still winless on the year, and his 9.00 ERA still reflects his first start of the season when he gave up a grand slam in the first before shortly departing that same inning with an injury. Lopez has struggled against the Twins and owns a 1-5 record against them with a 6.48 ERA. Given what’s at stake, I wouldn’t expect him to go particularly deep in this game and Chicago will have no qualms with pulling him early and turning the game over to their bullpen. The White Sox pen has already been responsible for 10 of their 22 wins this season.
While the White Sox may not have the advantage on the mound, their bats could end up being the difference in this decisive game. Chicago is second in the league with an above average wRC+ rating of 120, while the Twins are 21st in the league with a below average rating of 93.
In the season series, the Twins are +1 in run differential, and that suggests to me that both teams are much closer in talent than what the current line shows.
Betting Analysis and Pick
The only way I can look to play this game is to side with the team that offers up the most value. If it was 2019, perhaps I could understand why the Twins would be such a favorite, but not this year. On the season, the White Sox already have a +19 run differential over the Twins despite playing one less game.
Using our proprietary BetLabs database, I queried the performance of AL Central visiting teams in a September divisional matchup who are underdogs with odds ranging from +130 to +150 and found that they’re 60-70 for +13.93 units and a 10.7% ROI.
DraftKings is offering the White Sox at +132 and I think it’s worth the price to take a shot with the ‘dog.
I’ll risk half a unit to back the White Sox in the series finale in Target Field.
The Pick: White Sox ML +132 (Play down to +125)