World Series Game 6 Picks: Our Staff’s Best Bets for Rays vs. Dodgers (Tuesday, Oct. 27)
Tom Pennington/Getty Images. Pictured: Corey Seager.
- Our staff has found three betting picks worth making for Tuesday's Rays vs. Dodgers World Series Game 6 (8:08 p.m. ET, FOX).
- The Dodgers are slight favorites to close out the series tonight, but is there value to be had on the moneyline?
- And should we be expecting runs in a Snell vs. Gonsolin pitching matchup with a total of 8? Find out what our experts think below.
In what could be the final MLB game of 2020, the Dodgers will send Tony Gonoslin, and likely a string of pitchers behind him, to attempt to take down Blake Snell and the Rays for a 4-2 series win.
This series has gone back and forth, literally, with the Rays tying back up each time LA opened up a one-game lead, including in this exact matchup back in Game 2.
So are we in for more of the same tonight? Or does LA close this out?
Our experts offer their best bets for Game 6 below.
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Advanced Stats Glossary
FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.
wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.
wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.
Michael Arinze: Rays (+126)
I placed a future bet at 2:1 that this series would go the distance and now I’m one game away from my desired result. I love this spot for Tampa Bay coming off a loss in Game 5. The Rays have a clear edge in the pitching matchup on the mound for Game 6 with Blake Snell taking on Tony Gonsolin.
Gonsolin has a 9.39 ERA this postseason. He’s allowing just about one run per inning as he’s given up eight earned runs in 7.2 innings of work. The Dodgers right-hander has been hurt by a lack of control this postseason as evidenced by his 8.22 BB/9 ratio. Compare that to the regular season where his BB/9 ratio was just 1.35.
He’s also compounded the walks by allowing 3.52 home runs per nine innings. When you contrast that with his 0.39 HR/9 ratio in the regular season, it’s fair to wonder if the lights are too bright for Gonsolin in his first career postseason.
This postseason, Blake Snell is 2-2 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. He faced Dodgers in Game 2 of this series and helped the Rays to a 6-4 win but did not factor in the decision. Snell lasted only 4.2 innings and allowed two earned runs in the outing. While he didn’t qualify for the win, Snell did manage to depart with Tampa Bay still holding the lead in the ballgame.
The Rays are actually the better positioned team should this become a bullpen game early on. Tampa Bay’s bullpen is 2-0 this series with a 4.03 ERA while the Dodgers are 0-1 with a 5.57. The Rays have to play this like it’s Game 7 and I don’t think I can say the same about the Dodgers. I expect Gonsolin to struggle yet again in this matchup and the Dodgers to do one of two things: Leave him on the mound to take his lumps, or go to the bullpen early to try to salvage the game.
But I just can’t see the Dodgers burning their better relievers in this game at the risk of not having them fully available and rested for a possible Game 7. For these reasons, I like the Rays even more to extend the series to another game.
William Hill is offering the Rays at +126 and I think there’s pretty good value on the dog at that price. I’m comfortable playing this down to +120.
Mike Vitanza: Over 8 (-113)
Tony Gonsolin will get the start for the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 6. Gonsolin has struggled mightily over the course of this postseason, pitching to a 9.39 ERA and 8.67 FIP over 7.2 innings. He’s also allowed three home runs over that span.
He’ll make his second start of this World Series after receiving the nod in Game 2. In that outing, he lasted just 1.1 innings, giving up a solo home run to Brandon Lowe in a game they’d ultimately lose, 6-4. He’ll likely be on a short leash given the importance of the game, but his recent struggles suggest there is a strong likelihood of early runs for the Rays in this one.
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On the other side, Blake Snell’s 3.33 ERA so far this postseason looks good on the surface, but his 5.29 FIP suggests that he’s been a bit lucky so far. With nearly a two-run difference between his ERA and FIP, he’s a strong candidate for negative regression. He’s also been a frequent victim of the long ball throughout this postseason, averaging 1.8 HR/9 over 29.2 innings.
Both bullpens were outstanding during the regular season, but they’ve proven to be vulnerable at times over the course of this postseason. Game 4 of this series was a prime example. In that game, the bullpens combined to allow 10 of the 15 runs scored in the game.
While the roof is likely to be closed due to rain in the forecast, I’m not as concerned with its effect on the total as I’d normally be. Each of these offenses has shown a penchant for taking advantage of struggling pitching throughout this postseason, something we could see early with these two starters taking the mound.
I see value on the total at the current number and I’m wagering a unit on over 8 at -112 on DraftKings. I’d take this down to the -118 range.
BJ Cunningham: Dodgers Team Total Over 4.5 (+114)
Snell has been a strikeout machine in 2020, posting a 11.34 K/9, which ranks 10th among MLB starters. That has led to an xFIP of 3.03, which is second on the team to Tyler Glasnow. Snell, though, has struggled with his control in the postseason, allowing 14 walks and five home runs in his five postseason starts.
Snell is predominantly a fastball pitcher, but he’s been struggling with it this year. He averages just over 95 mph with the heater, but his location has been off, allowing a .444 wOBA to opponents. In fact, eight of the 10 home runs that he’s surrendered have come against his fastball. That won’t bode well against a Dodgers lineup that ranked second in MLB against fastballs this season (53.9 weighted fastball runs).
Although most of the Dodgers’ success has come against righties this season, they are no slouches against left-handed pitching. LA ranked eighth against lefties during the regular season with a .335 wOBA and 113 wRC+, including 27 home runs. AJ Pollock absolutely crushed lefties this season with .345 average and .468 wOBA, both of which were the best marks on the team.
Snell was able to no-hit the Dodgers through 4 and two-thirds innings in Game 2, but LA’s offense should have better success against him the second time around. I have the Dodgers projected for 4.74 runs tonight, so I think there is some value on their team total of over 4.5 runs at plus-money.