Yankees-Orioles Betting Preview: Don’t Count on Sonny Gray Rebounding

Yankees-Orioles Betting Preview: Don’t Count on Sonny Gray Rebounding article feature image

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sonny Gray

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, 7:05 p.m. ET

  • Yankees (Sonny Gray) -140
  • Orioles (Dylan Bundy) +130
  • Over/under: 9.5

Will Gray ever figure it out this season? I’m sure that’s what a lot of Yankees fans are asking. Or, considering they’re New Yorkers, they’ve already asked it months ago, and have decided “no, he’s a bum.” Only they did it with an accent. You’ll have to use your imagination.

Now, on the heels of two awful performances in a row, Gray heads to Baltimore, the antidote for so many struggling starting pitchers this season. For Gray, it’s the site of one of his best starts of 2018, a six-inning, one-run win. Now he’s possibly pitching for a chance to remain in the rotation. As he’s told various media outlets, this is the longest continuous stretch of suck-age of his career. He didn’t use “suck-age,” but you get the point. He’s more articulate than that.

Anyway, although it’s tempting to think the pressure of losing a spot in the rotation will motivate Gray, he still doesn’t pitch deep into games very often, going into the sixth inning in fewer than half his starts. The Yankees give him very good run support (4+ runs in 11 of 17 starts), usually because it is required to stay competitive.

With Aroldis Chapman sort of an unknown as he’s battled recent knee tendinitis, and the Yankees bullpen pretty heavily worked, I think there’s a real chance of seeing some Adam Warren and Chasen Shreve in this game, good news for Baltimore’s offense (almost every Oriole in the lineup hits Warren well).

For Baltimore, Mychal Givens has been excellent out of the bullpen in the first two games of the series, but hasn’t pitched three straight games this season, so it’s likely he’s unavailable. And Zach Britton could be too after pitching consecutive nights. That means we are seeing the really unseemly parts of the Orioles’ bullpen.

Bundy, their starter tonight, has been their most reliable arm by far all season, but returning from an ankle sprain in his last start, he didn’t look anything like himself. He said after the game basically everything he threw ended up down the middle. The market still gives Bundy a little credit for his string of reliable outings pre-injury, but I’m going to make him show me he’s back to his old form before I count on it.

All these bullpen-fatigue issues, inconsistent starter issues and summer temperatures in Baltimore (should be in the high 80s at first pitch) make the over a play for me in Wednesday night’s game.

The Bet: Over 9.5

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