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Lo Duca: Will Bullpen Cost Red Sox A Trip to the ALCS?

Lo Duca: Will Bullpen Cost Red Sox A Trip to the ALCS? article feature image

Brad Penner, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Chad Green

Betting odds: New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox

  • Yankees moneyline: -109
  • Red Sox moneyline: -101
  • Over/Under: 9 (+100/-120)
  • First pitch: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Channel: TBS

>> All odds as of 1 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets

It was a frustrating loss for Yankees bettors last night. The Bombers had several chances to blow the game open against a shoddy Red Sox bullpen but couldn’t get the job done.

There were definitely a few takeaways from that game. The first is obviously that Boston’s bullpen was alarmingly bad. It was just one game, but this is the Achilles heel for the World Series favorites.

Outside of Craig Kimbrel, Alex Cora has nobody he can trust in that ‘pen and the Yankees will be licking their chops if they can get David Price’s pitch count up in Game 2.

As for the Yankees, the loss of Aaron Hicks is a big blow. Even when he’s not hitting, the 29-year-old is a big piece of the Yankee puzzle. He’s a fantastic centerfielder and a switch-hitter who works the count almost every time he’s up.

Even without Hicks, New York should have success in Game 2.

The Yankees are built to smash left-handed pitching and they have had a lot of success against David Price. I’m sure the 33-year-old lefty is thrilled he’s pitching at Fenway and not in the Bronx, but this isn’t an ideal spot for him.

The Yankees have so much power from the right side (Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Luke Voit, Gary Sanchez) so Price will need to be near perfect to avoid getting punished.

Price gave up 1.24 home runs per 9 innings this season and the Yankees set a record for most dingers in a season, so I expect to see some fireworks in this one.

The same logic can be applied on the other side with Masahiro Tanaka. Boston crushes right-handed pitching and Tanaka has always had issues keeping the ball in the yard.

I am playing the Over 9 in this one but I also want to point your attention towards the adjusted series price. At Bookmaker the Yankees are listed at +196 to win the series with the Sox coming back at -220.

That means the Yankees are being given roughly a 33.8% chance to come back and win this series, which I think underrates the Bombers. New York’s lineup is just as good as Boston’s and the Yankees have a serious edge in the bullpen and they aren’t going to away easily.

I think the Yankees have a good chance to win tonight (so does the betting market judging by the line movement) and get back to the Bronx with a split. If that happens, their series price will shorten drastically. It’s a risky wager, but it’s worth a shot.

Bet: Over 9 (+100), Yankees To Win Series +196

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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