Yankees vs. Orioles Weather: Will Breezes Help the Bronx Bombers?

The Baltimore Orioles have had a difficult time not allowing home runs this season. I mean really difficult. Their pitching staff's 2.19 HR/9 is nearly one half of a home run higher than the second-worst team, the Mariners.

Some way, some how, Dylan Bundy's 2.14 HR/9 is actually better than the team average. Let me reassure you that 2.14 HR/9 is still absolutely terrible.

After allowing three home runs in each of the first two games of the series, the Orioles outdid themselves last night by allowing five dongs. Today's forecast features winds blowing out to left center … yikes.

Yankees (Masahiro Tanaka) at Orioles (Dylan Bundy)

12:35 p.m. ET
Over/Under: 9.5 (o-101)

We know about Bundy's HR woes, but Masahiro Tanaka has had some issues of his own. Despite being a solid overall pitcher and allowing a high percentage of ground balls, he's been somewhat of a meatball artist over the past few years.

Since the start of the 2017 season, his 1.56 HR/9 ranks eighth among 78 qualified pitchers. Ranking first? Dylan Bundy, of course!

As I mentioned, Tanaka is not a fly ball pitcher. To achieve this high HR/9, he has posted a HR/FB of 18.8% — the highest in the league over that span. That's what I was getting at when I said he was a meatball artist.

Though Tanaka has improved on both of these numbers this year, both are still worse than average.

In all honesty, this hasn't been a terrific spot at Camden Yards for betting overs. Historically, the over is just 105-101-15 with winds blowing out or to left at 5+ mph per Bet Labs. Today, it's going to be tickling the anemometer at 7 mph.

The over/under initially fell from 9.5 to 9, but moved back up to the opening number this morning. I personally bet on the over last night when it was at 9, but I wouldn't be opposed to taking it now given the low juice.

For you DFS players out there, the Weather Rating of 52 has been a pretty predictive number for players at Camden Yards.

Per FantasyLabs' Trends Tool, pitchers have posted a Plus/Minus of -1.30 in games with a Weather Rating above 50, but pitchers who get knocked around a bit have been far worse in these nice weather games.

Those with a hard-hit percentage of 30% or higher over the past calendar year (Tanaka 32%, Bundy 40%), have an ugly Plus/Minus of -2.95.

Conversely, hitters have posted a Plus/Minus of +0.39, with fly ball hitters and those with high hard-hit percentages performing significantly better.