Zerillo’s Updated 2020 MLB Win Totals, Division, World Series Odds After Dodgers Acquire Betts, Price
Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Mookie Betts
After the Dodgers acquired Mookie Betts and David Price from the Red Sox on Tuesday, oddsmakers had to adjust MLB win totals and odds quickly.
The Dodgers immediately moved from around +500 (implied 16.7%) to as low as +350 (implied 22.2%) to win the 2020 World Series, while their win total climbed from 98.5 to 100.5.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox saw their win total plummet from as high as 90.5 to as low as 85.5 — as substantial an adjustment from a single transaction as I can ever remember.
The Dodgers also made side deals to facilitate this trade, sending Joc Pederson and Ross Stripling across town to the Angels, and shipping Kenta Maeda to Minnesota, where he will join the recently-signed Josh Donaldson.
Much has changed in the MLB landscape in recent weeks, so let’s take a look at how some key moves have impacted my projections:
I had the Red Sox projected for 85 wins before the blockbuster trade, and have spent the offseason building a case to fade them.
For 2020, the Betts/Price trade cost them about four wins in my projections — and the betting market moved by about the same number on average.
I have also made the case that the Red Sox are ready to blow this whole thing up in the post-Cora/Dombrowski era. They have no farm system, less pitching depth and already traded two of their best players; this won’t be the last deal that they make.
Even before other transactions (i.e. Jackie Bradley Jr.) or potential injuries to players they will handle with kid gloves (they owe Chris Sale as much as $165 mil through 2025), I see this as a .500 club — and would continue to hit the under on their win total at 85 if you haven’t already gotten a better number.
With the Red Sox as less of a threat in the division, the Yankees benefit slightly from the deal, seeing their World Series odds increase by 1.6%. They also picked up a couple of extra wins, along with the Blue Jays, who have a legitimate shot at unseating the Red Sox for third place.
I’ll be looking to bet that exact result once divisional props are released.