UFC Fight Night Bets, Predictions & Picks: Our Staff’s Best Bets for Roberson vs. Vettori and Rosa vs. Aguilar

Credit:

Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: (L-R) Opponents Karl Roberson and Marvin Vettori.

  • With six bouts on Saturday's UFC Fight Night main card, there are plenty of options to find some betting value.
  • Our experts are looking to bet two specific matchups: Charles Rosa (+140 betting underdog) vs. Kevin Aguilar (-177 betting favorite) and Karl Roberson (+168 underdog) vs. Marvin Vettori (-215 favorite).
  • Check out their picks for tonight, along with breakdowns for each fight.

After witnessing Friday’s unusual weigh-in where three fighters (including headliner Jessica Eye) missed weight, tonight’s card should be interesting to say the least.

UFC on ESPN 10 begins at tonight at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+ with a four-fight preliminary card. The main card starts at 9 p.m. ET featuring six bouts, including the main event between Eye and Cynthia Calvillo.

Check out the bets garnering attention from our UFC experts below.


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Dann Stupp: Charles Rosa vs. Kevin Aguilar

UFC Contributor at The Action Network

Tonight’s UFC card is one of the company’s weaker efforts, even in a pandemic world, which helps explain why two fighters who are a combined 1-4 in their past five fights have third billing on the lineup. Still, Rosa vs. Aguilar should be a solid lightweight scrap to lead us into the night’s co-features.

I believe this fight opened appropriately as a near-pick’em, so as the money has rolled in on Aguilar and pushed Rosa to a fairly sizable underdog (+160), now’s the time to strike and take the plus play.

Rosa has alternated wins and losses during his seven-fight UFC career, but he’s also picked up four of the company’s $50,000 fight-night bonuses in the process. Expect another crowd-pleaser in this bout as the 33-year-old Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt looks to get this fight to the mat, where he should have a meaningful edge over heavy-handed Aguilar.

Until a recent two-fight skid, 31-year-old Aguilar was riding a nine-fight winning streak, which included a lengthy LFA title reign and victories over former WSOF champ Rick Glenn and Enrique Barzola in his first two UFC fights. However, even with two subsequent UFC losses, it’s hard to ding him too much since they came to fast-rising contender Dan Ige (decision) and always-tough Zubaira Tukhugov (TKO).

A few factors work in Rosa’s favor in this spot, though. He fought just a month ago (and lost via decision to Bryce Mitchell), so he’s experienced the unique atmosphere of competing in an empty arena void of fans. Additionally, the UFC is employing the smaller 25-foot octagon during the current string of events in Las Vegas, and those tighter confines should help a grappler like Rosa corner his opponent and drag the fight to the canvas.

Aguilar has demonstrated good takedown defense and accurate striking during his octagon career, but I like Rosa’s chances of getting this fight horizontal and exploiting his edge on the mat.

Stupp’s Pick: Rosa to win (+150)

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NJ and IN only.

Sean Zerillo: Karl Roberson vs. Marvin Vettori

Betting Analyst, The Action Network

Roberson and Vettori were scheduled to fight on May 13, but Roberson missed weight and subsequently pulled out of the fight due to rhabdomyolysis, and Vettori tried to fight him in the hotel lobby instead.

It was laughable when Roberson weighed in five pounds over on Friday, and there’s no doubt that Saturday’s co-main event will be a heated matchup.

I was going to bet Vettori fairly heavily on that May 13 card — he was reportedly peaking in training and presented an intense matchup against Roberson; and none of that has changed in the time since – I’m just hoping that the Italian is still on top of his game, one month later than initially planned.

Vettori is extremely well-rounded without being a specialist. He doesn’t have a single standout tool – though his boxing continues to improve in each fight, and he’s both durable and relentless.

Relative to Roberson, Vettori will look to apply forward pressure and get away from “Baby K’s” kickboxing. Roberson will look for the early knockout (+700 by KO/TKO) but this fight is -200 to go the distance, with Vettori by decision (-106) or Roberson by decision (+375) as the most likely outcomes.

The only loss in Vettori’s past five fights was a split decision against Israel Adesanya. Although he only has one stoppage win in the UFC (by submission), he has eight submissions in his career, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he finds a way to tap out Roberson on Saturday.

I’ll be using Vettori’s moneyline odds as a parlay piece. As far as method of finish and round props, Vettori by submission (+500) or KO/TKO (+700) are interesting prop wagers. The under 2.5 rounds (+175) is also enticing, given that both fighters have paths to a finish and could be emotional and/or overly aggressive given the circumstances surrounding this bout’s rescheduling.

Zerillo’s Pick: Under 2.5 rounds (+165)

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NJ and IN only.
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