The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series is in Bristol, Tennessee, this weekend for Sunday’s Food City 500. Bristol Motor Speedway is a 0.533-mile, steeply-banked concrete track that often leads to damaged vehicles and hot tempers.

The key stats that go into my machine learning model this weekend are quality pass percentage over the past eight Bristol races, driver rating at the past eight steep-track races, year-to-date performance, and, to a lesser extent, long-run speed in final practice. I’ll also use the RotoViz Driver Sim Scores to gauge race-winning upside.

 

Because Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson are the heavy favorites at a high-variance track, I’m giving you five plays who offer value at longer odds. Additionally, both Larson and Busch are fine to bet as parlays with your favorite prop bet.

As always, make sure you shop around for the best lines. TheGreek.com has far better odds than 5dimes for many of my favorite plays this weekend.

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