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Freedman’s Favorite NASCAR Matchup Props: Austin Dillon vs. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. at Pennzoil 400

Mar 03, 2019 10:55 AM EST
Credit:

Photo credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Martin Truex Jr.

  • Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring at least one of his favorite bets for each day of 2019.
  • On Sunday, he looks at the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX) and highlights the driver matchup between Austin Dillon vs. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.

Also follow me in The Action Network app, where each day I post additional, official player prop picks: Today we have eight-game NHL and NBA slates.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

206-174-11, +31.88 Units

  • NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
  • NBA: 100-81-3, +12.66 Units
  • NHL: 61-72-7, -5.13 Units
  • Golf: 4-4-1, +0.65 Units
  • NASCAR: 4-2-0, +2.55 Units
  • NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
  • NCAAB: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
  • Exotic: 16-1-0, +11.43 Units

The Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway

Forget what you think you know about Las Vegas Motor Speedway. What we see at the Pennzoil 400 today (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX) will be unlike any other NASCAR Cup racing Sin City has ever seen.

Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a typical 1.5-mile tri-oval track with low tire wear. As such, it has been home to some of the most boring races in recent memory.

But that all ends today.

With the new aerodynamic package NASCAR has introduced, we should expect to see a much tighter style of racing.

Here’s what Nick Giffen of RotoViz had to say about it in a conversation I had with him:

I’m going to add restrictor plate races to the model, so the model will be about 18% restrictor plate. The draft will make this plate lite. Qualifying was bananas.

It won’t be like Daytona, where you can move from last to first in 10 laps, but it will also be a lot easier to get to the front than past Vegas races. It’ll be hard to use past data to predict a completely new style of racing.

I think eighth through 28th could be pretty fluid. In practice, basically every non-backmarker was able at least to keep pace with the draft. Plate lite.

For more of Nick’s thoughts on what to expect from the race, check out the RotoViz Radio NASCAR podcast.

In researching, I’ve focused on historical data from large ovals with low tire wear:

  • Charlotte Motor Speedway
  • Kansas Speedway
  • Kentucky Speedway
  • Las Vegas Motor Speedway
  • Michigan International Raceway

And given Nick’s assertion that the new style of racing will make Las Vegas a “plate lite” track, I’ve also looked at past performance at restrictor plate tracks.

  • Daytona International Speedway
  • Talladega Superspeedway

In the RotoViz NASCAR Splits App, I looked at driver performance at these seven tracks (weighting all of them equally) in races the drivers finished since 2017.

Freedman’s Favorite NASCAR Driver Matchup for Pennzoil 400: Austin Dillon vs. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

  • Austin Dillon: -225
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: +175