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Freedman’s Favorite NASCAR Matchup Prop: Ty Dillon vs. Ryan Preece at Food City 500

Apr 07, 2019 4:58 AM EDT
Credit:

Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ty Dillon

  • Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring at least one of his favorite bets for each day of 2019.
  • On Sunday, he looks at the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway (2:00 p.m. ET, FS1) and highlights the driver matchup between Ty Dillon & Ryan Preece.

Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces highlighting props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.

In this piece, I’m looking at a driver matchup for the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway (2:00 p.m. ET, FS1).

For daily player props outside of NASCAR, follow me in The Action Network app.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

486-376-29, +70.38 Units

  • NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
  • NBA: 239-181-5, +32.50 Units
  • NHL: 66-80-7, -7.57 Units
  • MLB: 16-21-4, -7.75 Units
  • Golf: 4-7-1, -2.35 Units
  • NASCAR: 5-8-0, -1.70 Units
  • NCAAB: 112-63-12, +33.90 Units
  • NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
  • Exotic: 23-2-0, +12.64 Units

Freedman’s Favorite NASCAR Driver Matchup for Food City 500: Ty Dillon vs. Ryan Preece

  • Ty Dillon: -115
  • Ryan Preece: -115

I don’t have anything against Preece, but he’s a rookie with 12 NASCAR Cup Series races to his name, while Dillon is in his third year as a full-time Cup driver.

I’m not trying to make Dillon out to be great: In his five career Cup races at Bristol, he’s had just one top-20 finish. And Preece actually won at Bristol the last time he raced there in the Xfinity Series.

But Dillon’s track history might not be as bad as it seems. If we look at his Bristol Xfinity performances next to Preece’s to get more of an apples-to-apples comparison, we see that in Dillon’s 10 races he has four top-five and eight top-10 finishes. In Preece’s three times at the track, he has one victory — but he also has 15th- and 19th-place finishes.

On Friday night, Dillon had the better qualifying showing, so he starts farther forward, and he also had the superior 10-lap speed in the second and third practice sessions on Saturday.

  • Starting position: 24 vs. 30
  • Second practice: 22 vs. 25
  • Final practice: 20 vs. 30

UPDATE (11:00 a.m. ET): Thanks to @618DK on Twitter for pointing out that Preece has been forced into his backup car — with no practice in it — because he blew a tire in final practice and damaged his primary car. Per NASCAR rules, since Preece has changed vehicles he now must start from the rear of the field. This make Preece even less attractive relative to Dillon.

Since NASCAR introduced the new aerodynamic and rules package six races ago at Atlanta Motor Speedway, Dillon has more finishes in the top 20 (2 vs. 1) and top 30 (6 vs. 4). Over that time, Dillon has had a 21.7 average finishing position while Preece has had a 25.8.

With more experience, better recent form and superior starting position, practice time and track history, Dillon looks like he should be favored.

I’d bet Dillon down to -135.

The Pick: Dillon (-115)


Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

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