NASCAR heads to its first flat track of the year at ISM Raceway in Phoenix, Arizona (3:30 pm ET). Flat tracks require a different skill set, so the stats to key in on this weekend are slightly different. We still want to focus on long-run speed and recent performance at all tracks. However, starting position and recent flat-track performance also add predictive value to my machine learning statistical model. I’ll also use the RotoViz Driver Sim Scores to gauge race-winning upside.


Last weekend at Las Vegas, my picks again fared well, but Kevin Harvick stole the show with his second consecutive dominant performance. Kyle Busch (+800) finished second, while Kyle Larson (+400) and Martin Truex, Jr. (+650) finished third and fourth. My last pick, Chase Elliott (+1650), ran inside the top 10 all day but was taken out in a late-race incident with Kurt Busch.

Because of Kevin Harvick’s pure dominance this year, at Phoenix in the past, and in practice this weekend, he alone is skewing the odds for this race. Thus, I have only a couple picks to win this week.

As always, make sure you shop around for the best price, because I’m finding significantly different lines across a few different sites. Let’s dive into this week’s picks for Phoenix!

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