Freedman: Bet on Brad Keselowski at Pocono 400

Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces highlighting props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.

In this piece, I’m looking at my favorite driver matchup for the Pocono 400 at Pocono Raceway (2:00 p.m. ET, FS1).

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2019 Year-to-Date Record

862-630-48, +142.01 Units

• NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
• NBA: 411-308-7, +48.39 Units
• NHL: 146-117-13, +28.44 Units
• MLB: 54-57-14, -9.07 Units
• Golf: 9-13-2, -1.70 Units
• NASCAR: 12-17-0, -4.42 Units
• NCAAB: 125-70-12, +38.82 Units
• NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
• Exotic: 79-34-0, +28.50 Units
• Horse Racing: 4-0-0, +2.19 Units

Pocono 400 at Pocono Raceway: Kyle Busch vs. Brad Keselowski

• Kyle Busch: -175
• Brad Keselowski: +145

Last week I had success in taking Martin Truex Jr. at plus money over Kyle Busch, and I'm going against Busch once again this week.

NASCAR expert Nick Giffen highlights Kez in his pieces on the best bets to win the race and the most advantageous head-to-head matchups. Check out Nick's analysis on Kez: He knows way more about NASCAR than I do.

Busch has been the best driver in NASCAR since last season, and he's won the July version of this race in each of the past two years. He leads all drivers this season with his 113.9 driver rating.

And in final practice, Busch had the top 10-lap average.

But Kez is maybe a top-three and certainly a top-five driver. And in final practice, he had the second-fast 10-lap speed.

Kez and Busch (along with Truex) are tied with a NASCAR-high three wins this year. Kez doesn't have as many top-five finishes as Busch has (5 vs. 7), but at his best he's every bit the driver Busch is.

And Kez actually has the superior history at Pocono over the past five years, especially at the June race.

• 2018: June – 5 vs. 3; July – 38 vs. 1
• 2017: June – 5 vs. 9; July – 5 vs. 1
• 2016: June – 3 vs. 31; July – 2 vs. 9
• 2015: June – 17 vs. 9; August – 2 vs. 21
• 2014: June – 2 vs. 12; August – 23 vs. 42

Since 2014, Kez has seven top-five finishes at Pocono. Busch has just three. Granted, Kez hasn't won a Pocono race over the past five years, and Busch has won two of them, but Kez did get a Pocono win in 2011.

As much success as Busch has had at this track, it's hard to say that he's been a better driver than Kez at the Tricky Triangle.

Busch should be favored in this matchup, but NASCAR is a chaos-fueled sport, and anything could happen today if weather comes into play. (There's a strong possibility of rain in the forecast.)

As well as Keselowski has practiced and performed at Pocono, +145 just seems too generous.

I’d bet on Kez down to +125.

The Pick: Keselowski (+145)

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.