NASCAR at Atlanta Odds, Betting Pick: The Driver to Bet Right Now & Strategy for Saturday’s Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500


Photo by Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Ryan Blaney, Team Penske, Ford Mustang PPG (12)

Mar 13, 2020, 10:10 AM EDT

Editor’s note: The 2020 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway, as well as next weekend’s race Homestead-Miami Speedway have been postponed.

With concerns surrounding the outbreak of COVID-19, NASCAR announced on Thursday that this weekend’s race at Atlanta Motor Speedway and next week’s event at Homestead-Miami Speedway will still take place, however, both races will run without fans in attendance.

On Friday, it was then announced that this weekend’s race would move to Saturday (2 p.m. ET) with no practice sessions.

For those new to NASCAR, Atlanta Motor Speedway hasn’t been repaved since 1997 resulting in an extremely abrasive surface that wears out tires quickly and forces drivers to manhandle ill-handling racecars later in green flag runs.

Odds as of Thursday at 3 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

But from a betting value standpoint, I’ve noticed that practice sessions at high-tire wear tracks, like Atlanta, correlate more strongly with speed in the race than tracks with little wear.

Generally, I’d make a point not to exhaust my bankroll this early until I’m able to analyze those sessions.

But even with them cancelled, there is one driver I’m locking in now before cars hit the track tomorrow and odds go off the board.

NASCAR at Atlanta Betting Pick

One driver has popped in my research when looking at both performance in this race last year and at Auto Club Speedway, another high tire-wear track, two races ago.