NASCAR Supermarket Heroes 500 at Bristol Odds, Best Bets: 2 Prop Picks for Sunday’s Race
Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images. Pictured: Matt Kenseth, driver of the #42 Credit One Bank Chevrolet, leads a pack of cars
- Sunday's NASCAR Supermarket Heroes 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway is scheduled to start at 3:30 p.m. ET (FS1).
- Bristol races often produce plenty of cautions, paving the way for surprise top-10 finishers.
- We detail two NASCAR drivers offering prop-betting value for top-10 finishes today at Bristol.
Bristol Motor Speedway is both short and fast, meaning drivers are always maneuvering around other cars, resulting in plenty of on-track action.
A byproduct of close racing is wrecks, and Bristol sees lots of those as well. While we can’t predict which drivers will get caught up in accidents, this racetrack can produce surprise top-10 finishers.
From a betting standpoint, that opens the door to take stabs at longshot drivers to survive the cautions and sneak into better-than-expected finishes.
Here are two drivers that I’m betting for top-10 finishes for Sunday’s Supermarket Heroes 500 at Bristol (3:30 p.m. ET on FS1).
NASCAR at Bristol Odds & Picks
Matt Kenseth (+150) for a Top-10 Finish
Kenseth returned from retirement two weeks ago and has raced at Darlington Raceway and Charlotte Motor Speedway, both intermediate tracks, using a lower-horsepower, higher-downforce race package that was implemented prior to the start of the 2019 season.
Because Kenseth was retired, he had never run that package until Darlington.
However, the short-track race package that will be used Sunday at Bristol has more horsepower and less downforce than the intermediate package and, more importantly, is similar to the package used here prior to 2019.
Kenseth should be ready to roll as soon as the green flag waves at a racetrack where he’s had plenty of success, including four wins.
I toyed around with taking a crack at Kenseth to win at 40-1, and will jump in if that number floats a bit higher, but prefer betting him +150 for a top-10 finish right now.
John Hunter Nemechek (+600) for a Top-10 Finish
Nemechek has never run a Cup Series race at Bristol, but has all kinds of experience in the XFINITY and Truck Series.
The rookie has two top-five finishes in three XFINITY races, with just one finish worse than eighth in six Truck starts.
I don’t necessarily expect to see Nemechek consistently running in the top 10 all day, but considering his experience at this track and how well he’s been performing of late, he’s certainly capable of contending for a top 10 on speed alone — and especially if he’s one of the drivers fortunate to avoid the wrecks.
Is it likely that he’ll finish in the top 10? No.
But is it more likely than the 14.3% probability that his 6-1 odds imply? Absolutely.