NASCAR at Dover Matchup Picks, Odds: Plenty of Love for Logano

Oct 06, 2019 11:11 AM EDT
Credit:

Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joey Logano

  • NASCAR's Drydene 400 takes place today at Dover International Speedway (2:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN).
  • Nick Giffen offers three prop bets offering value for this race.

The Drydene 400 takes place at Dover International Speedway this afternoon. As I mentioned in my outrights article, I’ll be looking at four key data points:

  • 10-lap average
  • Track history
  • Year-to-date performance
  • Steep track performance (Dover, Bristol, Darlington, Homestead)

I’ll be adding additional weight to races that took place under high-downforce conditions (2013-2015 and 2019). The 2014 race, especially, took place with a very similar aerodynamic and horsepower package to this year’s package used at tracks one mile in length or less.

Here are my top prop bets for today’s race.

Alex Bowman (-118) over Kurt Busch

Kurt Busch has struggled with the high downforce package at Dover, with no finishes better than 12th from 2013-2015. He also placed 13th in the first race this year.

Meanwhile, Bowman came home second in the first Dover race this year. In 2015, with an underfunded Tommy Baldwin Racing team, Bowman finished 20th at Dover for his best career finish at a non-restrictor plate track over two seasons in back-marker cars.

Bowman was quicker than Kurt over 10 consecutive laps in both practice sessions, so he should be a solid favorite in this matchup. I’d bet Bowman down to -130.

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