Matchup Picks & Prop Bets for NASCAR FanShield 500: Using Practice Speed to Find Value at Phoenix

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Photo by Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Brad Keselowski (2) Team Penske Ford Mustang

Mar 08, 2020, 01:20 PM EDT
  • Looking to bet some matchups and props for Sunday's FanShield 500 at Phoenix? This is the place for you.
  • Check out Nick Giffen's picks and analysis for Kevin Harvick vs. Denny Hamlin and William Byron vs. Alex Bowman.
  • He also offers a take on a prop bet for the over/under of the number of the winning car.

If you’re looking for some NASCAR action but don’t want to lay 6-1 or longer for an outright race winner, then you’re in luck. There are some excellent head-to-head matchups for today’s FanShield 500 at Phoenix Raceway.

Let’s dive right into the best bets for today’s race.

NASCAR FanShield 500 Phoenix Betting Picks

Kevin Harvick (-130) over Denny Hamlin

Harvick has won 11 of the 14 matchups between these two during the Gen-6 era. Hamlin’s only three head-to-head wins have all come during higher downforce years (2013 and 2019). NASCAR has once again trimmed the downforce levels where Harvick was a perfect 6-0 against Hamlin.

Practice times also heavily favor Harvick. The two were separated by only one position in five-lap average, but that gap grew to three places over 10 laps, then eight places out of 21 cars over 15 laps and eight places out of 16 cars over 20 laps.

I’d favor Harvick down to -160.