NASCAR at Kansas Betting Odds & Picks: Two Important Bets for the Hollywood Casino 400 (Sunday, Oct. 18)


Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images. Pictured: Chase Elliott

  • The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs continue today with the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway.
  • Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney are two picks who stick out to Nick Giffen.
  • Giffen breaks down his picks with full analysis below.

The third round of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs begins today at Kansas Speedway. This is the second race at the 1.5-mile track this year.

Denny Hamlin was victorious in the first race, but circumstances are a bit different this time around.

The first Kansas race ended under the lights, but today’s affair will take place completely in daylight. Additionally, NASCAR is bringing a different right-side tire from the first Kansas race. That means the left-side tire will be the same as both Charlotte oval races and first Kansas race, while the left-side tire will be the same as the second Las Vegas race.

Using these races, here are the average green flag speed rankings by driver.

(Note: I’ve removed races where a driver had a major incident, then reranked the remaining drivers each race):

Driver Avg Rank
D. Hamlin 4.3
C. Elliott 4.8
A. Bowman 5
R. Blaney 5.3
M. Truex Jr 6
Ky. Busch 6
K. Harvick 8
W. Byron 8
J. Logano 8
Keselowski 8.5
E. Jones 9.5
Ku. Busch 10.3
A. Dillon 10.5
J. Johnson 11
DiBenedetto 13.7
T. Reddick 14
A. Almirola 15
C. Bowyer 16
C. Bell 18
Stenhouse 18

Implementing these rankings, plus some other statistics, here are two best bets for today’s Hollywood Casino 400:

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NASCAR at Kansas Odds, Betting Picks

Chase Elliott (+1000) to Win at Kansas

Elliott’s second-best average green flag speed ranking places him among the elite tier of drivers at the 1.5-mile tracks on these tires. Yes, there was a point in time where the Hendrick cars seemed slower at 1.5-mile tracks, but that came after the two Charlotte races, and seemingly ended at Las Vegas when the new right-side tire came into play.

The Hendrick cars all ran inside the Top 6 at one point at Las Vegas, where Elliott was the class of the field before strategy caught him out and he finished  in 22nd place.

Elliott’s last three fall Kansas finishes are second, first and fourth. He’s a top option here.

He’s priced as the fourth favorite at William Hill at this 10-1 number, but I’d still bet him at +650 at FanDuel or BetMGM.

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Ryan Blaney (+1700) to Win at Kansas

The driver that sits two places behind Elliott at the four representative races is Blaney,  his good friend and fellow second generation driver. Even expanding beyond the four representative races, Blaney has been cream of the crop at the seven low- or medium-wear, 1.5-mile races run in 2020.

If we just focus on finishes, Blaney’s 20th place finish at the first Kansas race is misleading. He was the seventh-fastest driver that day. He also finished third at both Charlotte races, along with a seventh-place effort at Las Vegas with the fourth fastest speed.

Blaney is clearly aTop 5, or even Top 3 option, yet he’s priced tied for sixth at +1700 at FanDuel. At William Hill, he’s priced seventh at 15-1, which is also a solid number for him.

[Bet Chase Elliott & Ryan Blaney now at FanDuel and get a $1,000 risk-free bet.]

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