NASCAR Richmond Matchup Picks: 2 Best Values for Federated Auto Parts 400

Sep 21, 2019 08:49 AM EDT

Adam Hagy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: NASCAR Cup Series driver Aric Almirola (10) during qualifying for the GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway.

  • NASCAR heads to Richmond for the second race of the 2019 Cup Series playoffs (7:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN).
  • Kyle Busch is the favorite to win the race outright.
  • Nick Giffen runs through two head-to-head matchup bets offering betting value for tonight's race.

Martin Truex Jr. (+1400) won the playoff opener at Las Vegas, which automatically advances him to the second round of the playoffs. That means his only goal at Richmond is to win the race. A win nets him a trophy, and more playoff points that carry over to future rounds. As a result, he’s more of a boom-or-bust play when you’re betting head-to-head matchups.

Instead of looking at these types of drivers for our matchup bets, it’s better to focus on two drivers matching up with a more narrow range of outcomes. That gives us more confidence in each driver’s median projection being closer to the true long-term median finish.

Because Richmond has a major incident rate among the lowest of all the tracks the Cup Series visits, I have a few matchups for tonight’s race that offer lower variance projections relative to other races and that my model also projects as strong value bets.

Let’s dive in.

A quick explanation on the odds below: -110 means a $110 wager would profit $100, while +135 means a $100 bet would net $135.

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game

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