The Action Network’s 2018 NBA Betting Power Rankings

Nov 15, 2018 9:25 PM EST
  • Sean Koerner, The Action Network's Director of Predictive Analytics, offers his proprietary NBA power ratings, which are made from a betting perspective. These will be updated throughout the 2018-19 season.
  • By subtracting the ratings for each team and adjusting for home-court advantage, bettors can use NBA power ratings to determine Koerner's point spreads for each game.
  • The NBA power ratings might not account for new injury updates, so follow our news feed and content for updated analysis on betting lines.

The Action Network’s NBA Power Rankings were created by Director of Predictive Analytics Sean Koerner. These ratings mirror those used by Vegas oddsmakers and project NBA point spreads.

A couple of notes …

  • These power ratings are specifically for the upcoming week of games; we’ll update them each Tuesday.
  • If a player is projected out for the upcoming week, the power rating will reflect that. If a player is day-to-day, questionable or merely out for one of the four games for that week, the power rating will reflect the player as being in.
  • This data should be used as a baseline. Our NBA analysts will provide color each day as to how injuries and news affect spreads and over/unders.
  • The power ratings don’t factor in home-court advantage. That number depends on a variety of factors, including rest and the specific team. For a baseline, we estimate home-court advantage is worth about 2.75 points, on average.
  • To create a point spread, subtract a team’s rating from its opponent’s rating and adjust for home-court advantage.

Without further ado, here are the NBA Week 5 power ratings. Below the table, I’ll walk through the biggest changes after Week 4.

Last updated Wednesday, Nov. 14.

NBA Week 5 Power Ratings

Biggest Risers

  • The Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers have both seen a bump of 1.5 since last week’s ratings. The Nuggets rank fifth in the league with a +6.1 point differential, and the Blazers rank third with a +9.7 mark. They both have top-10 offenses and defenses almost a quarter way through the season.
  • The Sacramento Kings got a bump of 1.3 in their rating, as they continue to show that perhaps they’re not in the bottom tier of teams this year. They sit 20th with a -1.1 point differential, ahead of teams like the Rockets and Wolves.

Biggest Fallers

  • The Cleveland Cavaliers are now last in our power ratings with a putrid 89.5 mark. That’s largely due to terrible play without Kevin Love; they currently sit 27th in the league with a -7.8 point differential. That said, when Love and Cedi Osman return, expect a bump up of about 4-5 points.
  • The Boston Celtics and Minnesota Timberwolves were next in line with drops of 1.4 points. The Celtics’ fall is mostly just due to regressing them down from high preseason expectations: They currently sit 11th with a middling +2.4 point differential. The Wolves took a hit due to the Jimmy Butler trade.

Injury Notes

  • Stephen Curry has missed the last couple of games for the defending champion Warriors. Without him, the Warriors’ rating drops from 108.7 to 104.7.
  • Russell Westbrook has been out for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Without him, the Thunder’s rating drops from 103.0 to 99.0.
  • Kawhi Leonard has rested a couple games already for the Toronto Raptors. Without him, the Raptors’ rating drops from 106.0 to 102.0.

Photos from USA Today Sports. Pictured: Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Chris Paul.

Follow Bryan Mears on Twitter

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