The Action Network’s 2018-19 Updated NBA Betting Power Rankings

Jan 21, 2019 10:05 AM EST
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Photos from USA Today Sports. Pictured: Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Chris Paul.

  • Sean Koerner, The Action Network's Director of Predictive Analytics, offers his proprietary NBA power ratings, which are made from a betting perspective. These will be updated throughout the 2018-19 season.
  • By subtracting the ratings for each team and adjusting for home-court advantage, bettors can use NBA power ratings to determine Koerner's point spreads for each game.
  • The NBA power ratings might not account for new injury updates, so follow our news feed and content for updated analysis on betting lines.

The Action Network’s NBA Power Rankings were created by Director of Predictive Analytics Sean Koerner. These ratings mirror those used by Vegas oddsmakers and project NBA point spreads.

A couple of notes …

  • These power ratings are specifically for the upcoming week of games; we’ll update them each Tuesday.
  • If a player is projected out for the upcoming week, the power rating will reflect that. If a player is day-to-day, questionable or merely out for one of the four games for that week, the power rating will reflect the player as being in.
  • This data should be used as a baseline. Our NBA analysts will provide color each day as to how injuries and news affect spreads and over/unders.
  • The power ratings don’t factor in home-court advantage. That number depends on a variety of factors, including rest and the specific team. For a baseline, we estimate home-court advantage is worth about 2.75 points, on average.
  • To create a point spread, subtract a team’s rating from its opponent’s rating and adjust for home-court advantage.

Without further ado, here are our NBA power ratings. Below the table, I’ll walk through the biggest changes from the last update.

Last updated Monday, Jan. 21.

NBA Power Ratings

Biggest Risers

  • The Sacramento Kings got a sizable bump thanks to sustained above-.500 play this season; they currently sit 24-23. They are outperforming their point differential (-1.2) by the third-highest mark in the league, however, so they’ll be a team to monitor moving forward.
  • The other team with a big jump is the Washington Wizards, who have been surprisingly competent even after losing John Wall for the year. Since he’s been out, they sit ninth with a +4.4 point differential, although they’ve had an easy schedule during that time.

Biggest Fallers

  • The Cleveland Cavaliers continue their epic free fall. Over the last month, they’ve gone 1-15 and sit dead last in the NBA by a mile with a -18.7 point differential.
  • The second-biggest drop belongs to the Charlotte Hornets, who have gone just 7-9 over the last month with a middling -3.5 point differential. It’s largely due to poor defense, as they rank 24th over that span.

Injury Notes

  • Chris Paul remains out with a strained hamstring. Without him, the Rockets’ rating drops from 104.7 to 99.2
  • Goran Dragic remains out with a knee injury. Without him, the Heat’s rating drops from 98.5 to 96.0.
  • Anthony Davis will be out the next week or so. Without him, the Pelicans’ rating drops from 101.0 to 95.5.
  • Devin Booker has been in and out of the lineup with back spasms. Without him, the Suns’ rating drops from 92.0 to 89.0.
  • Kawhi Leonard is still occasionally resting on back-to-backs. Without him, the Raptors’ rating drops from 105.5 to 101.5.
  • Joel Embiid has been game-time decisions each of the last three games. Without him, the 76ers’ rating drops from 101.5 to 97.5.
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