3 NBA Props for Thursday: Bledsoe Over/Under 5.5 Assists?
We have a smaller five-game slate as the NBA steps aside for MLB Opening Day, but the FantasyLabs Player Props tool still has identified a few exploitable props. Here are three I like for games starting at 7 p.m., 10 p.m. and 10:30 p.m. ET.
Goran Dragic Under 17 Points (-143 at BetOnline)
7 p.m. ET
The worry here is a blowout, as the hosting Heat enter tonight’s game against Chicago as 13-point favorites. In each of the past three games that Miami has won by 13 or more, Dragic has failed to play 30 minutes or top 14 points. The likely return of Hassan Whiteside enhances the appeal of this prop, as Dragic loses 0.9 percentage points of his usage rate and 1.9 percentage points off his true shooting percentage with Whiteside on the floor this season, per FantasyLabs’ NBA On/Off tool.
De’Aaron Fox Under 4 Assists (-114 at BetOnline)
10 p.m. ET
This is the only bet with a Bet Quality of 10 of 10. Fox has struggled lately, hitting a wall like the Kings franchise did long ago, and even getting benched down the stretch last week against the Hawks. He’s averaging 27.3 minutes per game on the season but has eclipsed that mark just once in the past six games. He has dished fewer than four assists in eight of his past 15 and is likely to make it 9-of-16 against the Pacers, who allow the eighth-fewest assists per game to point guards, per Rotowire. The 35% difference between his projection and the prop is nearly double that of any other projection vs. prop on the slate.
Eric Bledsoe Over 5.5 Assists (-114 at BetOnline)
10:30 p.m. ET | TNT
As Bledsoe has been freed from the shackles of former coach Jason Kidd, he’s started to drop more and more dimes. When Kidd was fired in late January, Bledsoe was mired in a month in which he ended up averaging only 3.7 assists per game. In February, that number rose to 5.8, and in March 6.2 — exactly what we have him projected for at FantasyLabs. Bledsoe has dished more than 5.5 assists in five of his past seven games, which should continue against the Warriors in a game in which the over/under of 215 is the highest on the slate by 4.5 points.
Pictured above: Eric Bledsoe.
Photo credit: Jeff Hanisch, USA TODAY Sports.