Bettors Moving Celtics from Small Dogs to Small Favorites in Game 5
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
- The 76ers opened -1.5 for Game 5
- Bettors are backing the Celtics, moving the line to Boston -1.5
- Boston’s implied probability improved from 47.19% to 52.81%
After Philadelphia staved off elimination in Game 4, the 76ers opened as -125 moneyline favorites for Game 5. Bettors quickly jumped on the Celtics to close out the 76ers tonight as 76% of dollars wagered on the moneyline have been on Boston, moving the number from +105 to -120.
After adjusting for the vig, that translates to an increase from 47.19% to 52.81% in implied probability.
Since 2005, teams to open +100 or higher and close -101 or higher are 22-17 straight-up (SU) and 21-18 against the spread (ATS) in the postseason. Since 2010, those teams are 17-10 SU and ATS.
The spread has also moved from a pick’em to Boston -1.5.
The 3-point move is not uncommon in the NBA Playoffs, as it’s happened over 50 times since 2005. But over the last three years, it has dramatically favored the team receiving the line move (Celtics in this case), at 10-5 ATS, including covering six of their last seven overall.
That value has absolutely vanished when looking at the second round, particularly in light of the fact that teams are failing to cover the spread by almost 6 PPG in that spot.
Top Photo: Boston Celtics guard Terry Rozier (12) dribbles against the Philadelphia 76ers