Five NBA Prop Bets for Friday: Curry Over/Under 30.5 Points?
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Tonight’s NBA slate is a massive 10 games, which means there are plenty of opportunities to look for exploitable prop bets. The FantasyLabs Player Props tool has identified 11 props with a Bet Quality of 10 on tonight’s slate and an additional 17 props with a Bet Quality of nine.
Here are five props that I have my eye on for games starting at 7:00, 7:30, 8:00, and 10:30 p.m. ET.
Nuggets SF/PF Wilson Chandler over five rebounds (-135)
7:00 p.m. ET
The Nuggets are still without Gary Harris for today’s contest vs. the Wizards, which means that Chandler should have the opportunity to play heavy minutes. He’s played at least 40 minutes in three of his past five games and pulled down at least five boards in six of his past seven games. The Wizards are just an average rebounding team, ranking 13th in team rebound rate this season.
Timberwolves C Karl-Anthony Towns over 24.5 points (-120)
7:30 p.m. ET
The Timberwolves have one of the best matchups on the slate against the New York Knicks. They’ve allowed 117.5 points per 100 possessions over their past 16 games, and the Timberwolves’ implied team total of 116.75 represents an increase of more than six points when compared to their seasonal average (110.0). He’s also seen a usage bump of 2.2 percentage points with Jimmy Butler off the floor this season, and Towns has been over 24.5 points in three of his past five games.
Heat PF James Johnson under 12.5 points (-125)
8:00 p.m. ET
Johnson has been a nice source of value recently for the Heat, but he’s played 25 minutes or fewer in two of his past three games. He’s scored no more than 12 points in each of those contests, and he posted a usage rate of just 6.5 percent in his most recent game. The Heat are implied for just 104.5 points, which is the fourth-lowest mark on today’s slate.
Warriors PG Steph Curry under 30.5 points (-114)
10:30 p.m. ET
Curry will make his return tonight after missing each of the past six games. The Warriors will still be pretty shorthanded, however, with Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green all already ruled out. Curry should post a massive usage rate given their current injury situation, but there are still reasons to believe this line is a little too high. It’s possible that the Warriors could blow the Hawks out despite being shorthanded, as they’re currently 9.5-point favorites at home. It’s also possible the Warriors could be cautious with Curry in his first game back and limit his minutes given his problems with ankle injuries throughout his career.
Hawks SF Taurean Prince over 17 points (-130)
10:30 p.m. ET
Prince has seen a nice bump in both playing time and usage since the Hawks lost Kent Bazemore. He played at least 35 minutes in five straight games prior to last night’s blowout vs. the Kings and has posted a usage rate of at least 29.9 percent in three of them. That’s a major increase from his season-long mark of 21.1 percent, and tonight’s game vs. the Warriors should be a nice pace-up spot for the Hawks.
Top Photo: Stephen Curry