Five NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday: Thomas Over/Under 18.5 Points?
Brace Hemmelgarn- USA Today Sports
Tonight’s slate features seven games, including the Raptors vs the Pistons and the Cavaliers vs Nuggets on ESPN. The FantasyLabs Player Props tool has identified a handful of potentially exploitable prop bets on tonight’s slate, including one in each of the marquee games. Overall, there are currently five props with a Bet Quality of 10 out of 10 and an additional 23 props with a Bet Quality of at least eight.
Here are five bets that are on my radar for games starting at 8:00 and 10:30 pm ET.
Jonathon Simmons under 12 points (-145)
10:30 p.m. ET
Simmons was replaced by Jonathan Isaac to start the second half on Monday, and it’s possible that change could stick heading into today’s contest. The Magic are clearly playing for the future at this point, and Isaac figures to be a huge part of their future after being drafted with the sixth pick last year. Either way, Simmons has seen his offensive involvement dwindle with the team back at full strength, posting a usage rate of 18.4 percent or lower in each of his past six games. He’s been at 12 points or fewer in six of his last eight games.
Isaiah Thomas over 18.5 points (-115)
10:30 p.m. ET
On the other side of the same matchup, it’s hard not to like Thomas against the Magic. They’ve been one of the worst defensive teams in the league this season, allowing 108.8 points per 100 possessions. The Lakers are implied for 115.5 points, which is the second-highest mark on the slate. They’re also going to be shorthanded, with Brandon Ingram already ruled out with a groin injury. Thomas has seen a team-high usage bump of 5.5 percentage points with Ingram out of the lineup this season, resulting in an average of 24.3 points per game.
James Harden over 5.5 rebounds (-125)
8:00 p.m. ET
Harden has been pretty aggressive rebounding the ball recently, going for at least seven boards in three of his past five games. He’s in a good spot for rebounding against the Milwaukee Bucks, who have the third-worst team rebound rate in the league. He ripped down six rebounds in his first meeting with Milwaukee this season.
Jordan Clarkson under 13 points (-130)
10:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Clarkson has been under 13 points in three straight games, with one of those matchups coming against the same Nuggets team he’s facing today. He likely wont play more than 26 minutes, so he’ll have to be active when on the floor to have a chance at exceeding 13 points. He’s posted a usage rate below 20 percent in two of his past three games, so he’s not dominating the basketball for the second unit either.
Serge Ibaka over 5.5 rebounds (-125)
8:00 p.m. ET | ESPN
The Raptors are slightly shorthanded at the moment, with OG Anunoby missing each of the past three games. He’ll make it four in a row today against the Pistons, which could results in a few extra minutes for Serge Ibaka. He’s played at least 25 minutes in each of the past two games for the Raptors, and he pulled down at least six rebounds in both. The Pistons are also one of the larger teams in the league with Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond, so the Raptors might need to lean on their big lineup with Ibaka a little more than usual.
Top photo: Isaiah Thomas; credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports