Five NBA Prop Bets for Tuesday: Over/Under 14.5 Points for Mirotic?
Feb 5, 2018; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Pelicans forward Nikola Mirotic (3) drives past Utah Jazz forward Derrick Favors (15) during the first quarter at the Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Tonight’s slate features eight games, and the FantasyLabs Player Props tool has identified a ton of potentially exploitable prop bets. There are currently six props with a Bet Quality of 10 out of 10, and an additional 24 props have a Bet Quality of at least eight.
I have my eye on five props on tonight’s slate for games starting at 7:00, 8:00, 10:00, and 10:30 p.m. ET
Dennis Schroder under six assists (-115 at Sportsbook.com)
7:00 p.m. ET
Schroder has averaged 6.2 assists per game this season, but that number has trended in the wrong direction recently. He’s averaged only 4.67 assists per game since February 1 and has been over six assists just once in his last six games. Schroder has also seen a decrease in playing time (the Hawks are now ‘playing’ for draft positioning), and he is currently dealing with an undisclosed injury after leaving his last game early. He’s projected for just 27.2 minutes in the FantasyLabs NBA Models, which will make it tough for him to pile up assists against a Raptors’ team that ranks third in defensive efficiency.
Russell Westbrook under 27.5 points (-130 at 5Dimes)
8:00 p.m. ET | TNT
Westbrook has seen a slight decrease in his scoring numbers relative to those from his MVP season, and he is currently averaging 25.3 points per game. He’s in an intriguing spot today against the Houston Rockets, who rank in the top 10 in both pace and defensive efficiency this season. The Thunder’s implied team total of 107.25 does represent a slight increase when compared to their seasonal average (106.6), but it has dropped by a full two points since opening despite 60 percent of the bets coming in on the over. Westbrook also has a brutal individual matchup with Chris Paul, who still grades out as an elite individual defender per Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM) at this stage of his career.
Enes Kanter under 11.5 rebounds (-145 at 5Dimes)
10:00 p.m. ET
Kanter has ripped down at least 12 boards in four of his last five games, but that belies the fact that he’s playing no more than 23 minutes at the moment. He has feasted on some weak rebounding teams — Sacramento, Boston, and Orlando — but today’s matchup with Portland should be much more difficult. The Trail Blazers currently rank seventh in the league in rebound percentage, and both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace.
Nikola Mirotic over 14.5 points (-115 at 5Dimes)
10:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Tonight’s game between the Clippers and Pelicans should feature a tremendous amount of scoring. The total currently sits at 236 points, which is tied for the second-highest mark of the season. The Pelicans have played at a breakneck pace since losing DeMarcus Cousins, averaging 103 possessions per game, and both of these teams currently rank in the top seven in offensive efficiency. One player in this game who seems underpriced by the prop market is Mirotic. He entered the starting lineup for Emeka Okafor in the Pels’ last game, and he will likely start again tonight if Okafor can’t suit up. He played 30 minutes in that game and has averaged 16.8 points per 36 minutes as a member of the Pelicans this season.
Dwight Howard under 11.5 rebounds (-125 at Bovada)
7:00 p.m. ET
Like Kanter, Howard has seen a significant decrease in playing time recently, playing 26 minutes or fewer in five of his last six games. Unlike Kanter, he has seen his rebounding total drastically decline as he’s posted no more than 10 rebounds in five of those contests. Today’s game against the 76ers should also be a tough one for Howard, with Philly currently ranking fourth in team rebound rate.
Top photo: Nikola Mirotic; credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports