Four NBA Prop Bets for Monday: Lonzo Over/Under 10 Points?
Kirby Lee- USA Today Sports
The NBA can return to center stage tonight with March Madness on pause for a couple of days. As usual, the FantasyLabs Player Props tool has identified a handful of potentially exploitable prop bets on tonight’s slate. There are currently six props with a Bet Quality of 10 and an additional 11 props with a Bet Quality of nine.
Here are four props that are on my radar for games starting at 7 and 7:30 p.m. ET.
Lonzo Ball over 10 points (-135 at 5Dimes)
7:00 p.m. ET
Lonzo has been held below 10 points in each of his past four games, but he seems like a prime candidate for positive regression with his shooting numbers. He’s shot just 22.9 percent from the field over that time frame, which is awful even by Ball’s somewhat low standards. He’s put up at least 11 shot attempts in seven of his past eight games, so he’s getting plenty of opportunities to score the basketball recently.
Tyreke Evans over 18.5 points (-114 at BetOnline)
7:30 p.m. ET
Evans has played only two games since returning from injury, but he’s had a massive role for the Grizzlies in both games. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 30.3 percent in those contests, resulting in an average of 22.5 points per game. He has an outstanding matchup today against the Nets, who are tied for 25th in defensive efficiency on the season.
Wilson Chandler under 11.5 points (-115 at 5Dimes)
7:30 p.m. ET
Chandler has had an up-and-down season, but there have been way more downs than ups. Minutes have not been the issue; his usage rate of 14.7 percent is by far the lowest mark of his career. He’s been below that mark in each of his past two games, posting usage rates of 9.9 and 6.4 percent, respectively. The Nuggets are in a tough spot today against the Miami Heat, and their current implied team total of 107 represents a decrease of two points compared to their season-average (109.0).
Joel Embiid under 10 rebounds (-100 at BetOnline)
7:00 p.m. ET
Embiid has ripped down 10 or more boards in three straight games, but those contests have come against weak rebounding teams like the Nets and Pacers. Today’s matchup with the Hornets should be much tougher, with Charlotte currently ranking third in team rebound rate. Embiid pulled down just five boards in his most recent matchup against Charlotte.
Top Photo: Lonzo Ball; Photo Credit: Kirby Lee- USA Today Sports