NBA Betting, DFS Guide: Angles for Every Friday Game

NBA Betting, DFS Guide: Angles for Every Friday Game article feature image
Credit:

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

If you got sick last night watching sloppy turnovers, wide-open layups thanks to terrible defense and games smashing the unders, it might be time to check out some professional basketball. Thankfully, the league is providing us with a full 10-game slate. Let’s dive into everything it has to offer.

All info as of Friday morning. Check back during the day and keep an eye on our Twitter handle for any updates.

If there’s a specific matchup you want to jump to, click the quick links below. For live spreads and bet percentages, check out this page. Follow the latest injury info on our industry-leading news feed. To get access to our premium betting tools, subscribe here.

DEN-WAS | MIA-OKC | UTA-SAS | BOS-POR | Quick Hits


DENVER NUGGETS AT WASHINGTON WIZARDS (-1.5) | O/U: 219.5

7 p.m. ET

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

What the metrics say: These teams met just once this year, in the first week of the season. Washington won at home 109-104 in an ugly battle: Neither team got above 105.1 points per 100 possessions, and they were both especially atrocious offensively in the half court, scoring at rates of less than 82.0 points/100. The Nuggets and Wizards have struggled to defend the rim this season, ranking 23rd and 26th in field-goal percentage allowed there, respectively. That said, the Nuggets are typically much worse than the Wiz in half-court sets, as they rank a poor 26th in 3-point percentage allowed; Washington owns the best 3-point defense in the league. Bradley Beal getting hot from 3 could be the difference in an otherwise close affair. — Bryan Mears

Trend to know: The Nuggets won and covered on the road against the Bulls on Wednesday night. Since 2012, Denver is 23-34-2 ATS (40.4%) on the road after covering the spread on the road in its previous game; the Nuggets are the third-least profitable team in the NBA over that span. — Evan Abrams


MIAMI HEAT AT OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (-6.5) | O/U: 215.5

8 p.m. ET

David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

What the metrics say: The Thunder have been up-and-down defensively this season since stud wing defender Andre Roberson went down. Per nbawowy.com, Oklahoma City has allowed just 101.7 points/100 with Roberson on the floor this year versus 112.6/100 with him off. Those numbers aren’t encouraging, although OKC does have perhaps underrated strengths on that side of the floor. Guys like Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Steven Adams are able to generate turnovers, and the Thunder still rank first in the league in defensive turnover rate. That could be a problem for the Heat, who rank just 20th in offensive turnover rate. The Thunder have forced turnovers on at least 19.0% of their opponent’s possessions in each of their past three games; those are in the 87th-plus percentile of games this season. — Bryan Mears

Trend to know: The under has covered in the Heat-Thunder’s past seven meetings dating to 2014. The under in the seven games is covering by 21.4 points per game. Yes, you read that number correctly. All seven totals were above 200, with tonight’s set at 215.5. — Evan Abrams

UTAH JAZZ AT SAN ANTONIO SPURS (-3) | O/U: 195

8:30 p.m. ET

Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports

What the metrics say: The Jazz returned to their winning ways Thursday against Dallas after dropping a brutal game to the tanking Atlanta Hawks. Prior to that matchup, Utah had won nine straight. The issue wasn’t the Jazz’s defense: They’ve allowed opponents to score 98.0 points/100 in each of their past nine. The Jazz are 3-0 this season against the Spurs, who have stepped up defensively of late as well. This should be a defensive battle much like you’d expect, as both squads rank in the top three in defensive efficiency. The one area I still think could come back to bite the Spurs when it counts this season is their offensive profile: They rank 27th in frequency of shots from the rim and 26th in 3-point rate. They’ve made it work against most teams this year, but inefficient shots against one of the league’s best defensive teams could spell a lot of trouble. — Bryan Mears

Trend to know: For just the second time over the past three seasons, the Spurs are riding a five-game ATS winning streak (December 2016). Since the 2005 season, San Antonio has performed well when playing on an ATS winning streak of five or more games, going 17-9 ATS. — Evan Abrams

BOSTON CELTICS AT PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (-6.5) | O/U: 203

10 p.m. ET

David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

What the metrics say: These squads are actually quite similar. They are uninspiring offensively, letting point guards Damian Lillard and Kyrie Irving run the show. They survive with their defenses, and they both rank top-seven in defensive efficiency and top-five in effective field-goal percentage allowed. One thing I’m curious about is what sort of shots Boston can continuously generate sans Irving, who is obviously incredibly important to their identity. This season the Celtics have been 9.8 points/100 better with him on the floor, and their effective field-goal percentage is 4.6% better. Things just get more complicated without him: Boston ranks an atrocious 29th in frequency of shots from the rim and 29th in field-goal percentage there. Irving is certainly their best penetrator, and that should definitely matter against Portland’s scheme.— Bryan Mears

Trend to know: Since Brad Stevens became the coach of the Celtics in 2013-14, Boston is 33-17 ATS (66%) on the road against opponents with a win rate above 60% — the second-most profitable team in the NBA in that spot. Boston is 17-8 ATS in that spot against the Western Conference. — Evan Abrams

Quick Hits on the Rest of the Slate

L.A. CLIPPERS AT INDIANA PACERS (-2.5) | O/U: 219

7 p.m. ET

Over the past five seasons, Pacers home games have gone under the total 57.5% of the time — the most-profitable under position at home in the league during that span. The under has actually covered in the Pacers’ past six home games, dating to Feb. 23. — Evan Abrams

PHOENIX SUNS AT CLEVELAND CAVALIERS — NO LINE CURRENTLY

7:30 p.m. ET

LeBron James’ level of efficiency when he faces the Phoenix Suns is extraterrestrial. Here are some notes on his past four games:

  • Field goals: 33-51 (64.7%), eFG%: 67.6%
  • Second-half field goals: 18-26 (69.2%)
  • He had a triple-double in his last game (28-12-11)

Since 2007, teams with a win rate less than 30% facing a team with a win rate above 55% at least 70 games into the regular season cover the spread just 42.7% of the time. For Friday night, this works for both the Suns in Cleveland and the Hawks in Golden State. — Evan Abrams

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES (-6.5) AT NEW YORK KNICKS | O/U: 222.5

7:30 p.m. ET

The Knicks have been without Kristaps Porzingis since Feb. 8 (not including the seven games he missed earlier in the season). During that span they are 3-14 SU and 5-12 ATS with a net efficiency of -10.9 — the third-worst in the NBA, ahead of just the Grizzlies and Suns. During that span, the Knicks also own the worst Defensive Rating in the NBA (115.1), almost two full points below the Nuggets’ No. 29 mark. — Evan Abrams

BROOKLYN NETS AT TORONTO RAPTORS (-12) | O/U: 221.5

7:30 p.m. ET

Since January 2016, the Raptors have won 11 consecutive games SU against the Nets. Toronto is 8-3 ATS during that span, covering the spread against the Nets by 2.5 PPG.

The Raps have failed to cover the spread in their past four games entering this contest, and history tells us it’s never fun to try and break an ATS losing streak when favored by double digits:

Teams on a four-plus-game ATS losing streak when favored by double digits since January 2005: 44.4% ATS.

  • Teams with a win rate above 60%: 42.2% ATS
  • In games February or later: 39.7% ATS — Evan Abrams

MILWAUKEE BUCKS (-5) AT CHICAGO BULLS | O/U: 217

8 p.m. ET

Over the past two seasons, the Bucks have been without Giannis Antetokounmpo for six games and are 2-4 SU and ATS; they are 0-3 ATS in their past three games without Giannis. In those six games, Milwaukee really struggled in the second half, getting outscored by 7.8 PPG. — Evan Abrams

ATLANTA HAWKS AT GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (-9.5) | O/U: 221

10:30 p.m. ET

If you are betting on the Warriors solely because they lost SU and ATS in their last game, or even because they lost by double digits against the Spurs, read this: Under Steve Kerr, the Dubs are an even 28-28 ATS the game after a SU and ATS loss, and they are 14-14 ATS the game after a SU loss by double digits. If you like the Warriors for any other reason, carry on. — Evan Abrams

Photo credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports