3 NBA Props for 76ers-Celtics Game 1: Smart Over/Under 9.5 Points?

3 NBA Props for 76ers-Celtics Game 1: Smart Over/Under 9.5 Points? article feature image

Greg M. Cooper- USA Today Sports

The NBA Props article offers data-driven analysis on player prop bets for each day’s slate using The Action Network’s public betting data along with the tools at FantasyLabs and Sports Insights to highlight notable props.

There’s only one NBA game on today’s slate — the Philadelphia 76ers vs. the Boston Celtics — but that doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities to look for potential value. Three lines stand out to me in Game 1 of this series:

  • Marcus Smart over/under 9.5 points
  • Terry Rozier over/under 6.0 assists
  • Ersan Ilyasova over/under 10.0 points

All lines accurate as of 4:30 p.m. ET on Monday, April 29. Looking for more props? Check out the FantasyLabs NBA Player Props tool.

Celtics PG/SG Marcus Smart over 9.5 points (-120)

8 p.m. ET | TNT

Jaylen Brown’s status for tonight’s game isn’t finalized yet, but Brad Stevens considered him doubtful to play after Sunday’s practice. If Brown is unavailable, Smart could move into the starting lineup and play major minutes. He’s seen a usage bump of 5% with both Brown and Kyrie Irving off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 14.2 points per 100 possessions. He’s currently expected to be matched up with J.J. Redick, who finished just 86th out of 105 qualifiers at shooting guard in terms of Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM).

Celtics PG Terry Rozier under six assists (+105)

8 p.m. ET | TNT

An increase in Smart’s playing time could have a negative impact on Rozier, whose assist rate has decreased by 4.8% when sharing the court with Smart this season. Rozier has been held to five assists in two of three games since Smart returned to the lineup. This is a difficult matchup, too: Philadelphia has allowed the sixth-fewest assists per game this season. With many factors working against Rozier, I love getting better than even money on this prop.

76ers PF Ersan Ilyasova under 10 points (+100)

8 p.m. ET | TNT

Ilyasova has seen the biggest decrease in value with the return of Joel Embiid. He’s played 23.5 minutes or less in two of his past three games and has been held to 10 points or fewer in all of them. The Celtics were the top team in the league this season in terms of defensive efficiency, and the 76ers’ current implied team total of 104.75 points is more than five points lower than their season average (110.1).

Pictured above: Marcus Smart
Photo credit: Greg M. Cooper- USA Today Sports