3 NBA Props for Friday: Rubio Over/Under 14.5 Points?

3 NBA Props for Friday: Rubio Over/Under 14.5 Points? article feature image

The NBA Props article offers data-driven analysis on player prop bets for each day’s slate using The Action Network’s public betting data along with the tools at FantasyLabs and Sports Insights to highlight notable props.

Friday’s analysis will cover the following three props:

  • Domantas Sabonis over/under 5 rebounds, Indiana vs. Cleveland (8 p.m. ET).
  • Myles Turner over/under 12.5 points, Indiana vs. Cleveland (8 p.m. ET).
  • Ricky Rubio over/under 14.5 points, Utah vs. Oklahoma City (10:30 p.m. ET).

All lines accurate as of 4 p.m. ET on Friday, April 27. Looking for more props? Check out the FantasyLabs NBA Player Props tool.

 

Domantas Sabonis Over 5 Rebounds (-105)

8 p.m. ET | ESPN

During the regular season, Sabonis needed just 24.5 minutes per game to average 7.7 rebounds, and he’s been playing 27.5 minutes per game over the past three games against the Cavs — including 33 in Game 5. That amount of playing time is likely to continue after Sabonis poured in 19 points in Game 4 and followed that up with a 22-point showing in Game 5.  And scoring is not the only way Sabonis benefits the offense: He leads the Pacers during the playoffs in screen assists (when an offensive player sets a screen for a teammate that directly leads to a made field goal by that teammate) and is also more skilled than Myles Turner at making the Cavs pay for trapping Victor Oladipo, whose Offensive Rating is 6.6 points higher with Sabonis on versus off the floor this series, per the FantasyLabs NBA On/Off tool. And while tickets are split nearly 50/50 on the over/under in this game as of this writing, more than 90% of the money is on the under, which is usually a plus for rebounding numbers.

Myles Turner Under 12.5 Points (-115)

8 p.m. ET | ESPN

Sabonis’ emergence over the past two games has been directly correlated with a reduction in playing time for Turner, who failed to crack 23 minutes in Games 4 and 5 after playing no fewer than 30 minutes in each of the first three games of the series. I already mentioned the sharp money on the under in this game, and it also doesn’t hurt that Indiana is getting over 50% of spread tickets but under 30% of spread money as of this writing. Turner averaged 12.7 points per game during the regular season in 28,2 minutes per game, so give me the under all day when it’s well within the realm of possibility that he gets only 70-80% of that playing time Friday.

Ricky Rubio Over 14.5 Points (-105)

10:30 p.m. ET | ESPN

Rubio started off the 2017-18 campaign slow in the scoring department but averaged 15.6 points per game in March,  17.0 in April, and is averaging 16.8 in this series. This prop has come down a bit since earlier in the series probably due to recency bias after Rubio scored 13 points in Game 4 and 10 in Game 5, making it a good time to bang the over on a player who’s been averaging well over 14.5 points per game for months now. As of this writing, 60% of spread tickets and 82% of the money is on Utah, and if you’re on the same side as those backers you might want to consider that Rubio averaged 4.6 more points per game in wins than losses during the regular season and 8.8 more points per game in Utah’s three wins than in their two losses in this series.

Pictured above: Ricky Rubio
Photo credit: Chris Nicoll – USA TODAY Sports