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3 NBA Props for Saturday: Harden Over/Under 8.5 Assists?

May 26, 2018 11:55 AM EDT
Credit:

Troy Taormina – USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: James Harden.

This article offers data-driven analysis on notable NBA player prop bets, often incorporating The Action Network’s public betting data along with the tools at FantasyLabs and Sports Insights.

Saturday’s analysis will cover the following three props for Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals featuring the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors at 9 p.m. ET:

  • Clint Capela (Rockets) over/under 13.5 points
  • Klay Thompson (Warriors) over/under 21.5 points
  • James Harden (Rockets) over/under 8.5 assists

Looking for more props? Check out the FantasyLabs NBA Player Props tool.

 

Clint Capela under 13.5 points (-115)

9 p.m. ET | TNT

The under on this prop came through for me in Game 5 despite Capela scoring eight points in the first six minutes of the game. He has scored under 13.5 points in eight straight games, and the absence of Chris Paul could actually hurt Capela in the scoring department; he’s seen an average usage decrease of 1.5% in 21 games without Paul this season, and as a result he’s averaged 0.8 fewer points per game. Paul’s absence doesn’t necessarily guarantee Capela more minutes either, as the Rockets could lean more heavily on Gerald Green, Luc Mbah a Moute, and/or Joe Johnson if they choose to go with a smaller lineup.

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