3 NBA Props for Saturday: Harden Over/Under 8.5 Assists?

This article offers data-driven analysis on notable NBA player prop bets, often incorporating The Action Network’s public betting data along with the tools at FantasyLabs and Sports Insights.

Saturday’s analysis will cover the following three props for Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals featuring the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors at 9 p.m. ET:

• Clint Capela (Rockets) over/under 13.5 points
• Klay Thompson (Warriors) over/under 21.5 points
• James Harden (Rockets) over/under 8.5 assists

Looking for more props? Check out the FantasyLabs NBA Player Props tool.

The Angles: Can the Rockets Cover Without Chris Paul?

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Clint Capela under 13.5 points (-115)

9 p.m. ET | TNT

The under on this prop came through for me in Game 5 despite Capela scoring eight points in the first six minutes of the game. He has scored under 13.5 points in eight straight games, and the absence of Chris Paul could actually hurt Capela in the scoring department; he’s seen an average usage decrease of 1.5% in 21 games without Paul this season, and as a result he’s averaged 0.8 fewer points per game. Paul’s absence doesn’t necessarily guarantee Capela more minutes either, as the Rockets could lean more heavily on Gerald Green, Luc Mbah a Moute, and/or Joe Johnson if they choose to go with a smaller lineup.

Klay Thompson Under 21.5 Points (-115)

9 p.m. ET | TNT

Thompson is coming off 23 points in Game 5, but he needed to shoot 8-of-14 from the field and 4-of-7 from 3-point range to get there. His usage rate has plummeted to just 18.3% over the past four games, resulting in an average of just 13.5 points per game. This line is based more on Klay’s reputation than his production for the Warriors at the moment.

James Harden Under 8.5 Assists (-120)

9 p.m. ET | TNT

Unlike Capela, Harden should undoubtedly see an increase in usage with Paul out of the lineup, and while that might help his scoring numbers, his assist prop feels a bit inflated. The Warriors have done a good job of staying glued to shooters in this series and have focused on converting Harden into a scorer. He’s had just four assists in each of the past two games and has exceeded the 8.5-assist threshold just once this series.

All lines accurate as of 5:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, May 26.