We don’t have public betting data on specific player props, but we do of course have them for the spreads and over/unders of each game. By identifying discrepancies between the percentage of betting tickets and percentage of money in a particular game, we can find situations where the books may be undervaluing teams, and by relation, players, in certain spots.
With that in mind, here are three props from the two-game NBA on TNT nightcap that are worth considering:
- Marcin Gortat over/under 9 points (vs. TOR) — 6 p.m. ET
- Thaddeus Young over/under 10.5 points (vs. CLE) — 8:30 p.m. ET
- LeBron James over/under 10.5 rebounds (at IND) — 8:30 p.m. ET
All lines accurate as of 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, April 22. Looking for more props? Check out the FantasyLabs Player Props tool.
Wizards C Marcin Gortat Under 9 Points vs. Raptors (+100 at Bovada)
6 p.m. ET | TNT
After much ado about Gortat potentially getting benched for Game 3, he started and rose to the occasion with 16 points on 8-of-10 shooting. But this is still a guy who averaged 7.6 points per game after the All-Star Break, played 12 minutes in Game 2, and scored fewer than nine points 43 times during the regular season while going over nine in only 33 games. Washington got a much-needed home victory in Game 3, but it enters Game 4 as underdogs getting less than 40% of the tickets and 30% of the money as of this writing. Gortat has averaged 1.6 fewer points per game in losses (7.6) than in wins (9.2) during the regular season.
Pacers F Thaddeus Young Under 11.5 Points vs. Cavaliers (-125 at Bovada)
8:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Young has posted a single-digit usage rate in two of the three games against Cleveland in this series, posting just 20 shots across 100 total minutes and scoring eight points or fewer in two of the three games He’s likely to make it three of four Sunday with the Pacers having turned the keys to the offense over to Victor Oladipo, while Bojan Bogdanovic and Myles Turner have also been showing increasing involvement. Young’s priority is likely going to remain on the other end of the floor, where he’s averaging 2.0 steals and 1.7 blocks per game and doing a good job on Kevin Love. If you’re one of the 68% of bettors on the Cavs in this spot, you may want to consider parlaying your bet with the under on Young’s points: He’s averaged 2.3 fewer points per game in losses (10.4) than in wins (12.7) this season.
Cavaliers F LeBron James Over 10 Rebounds at Pacers (-105 at Bovada)
8:30 p.m. ET | TNT
More than 70% of the tickets are on the over in Cavs-Pacers as of this writing, but 60+% of the money is on the under, meaning the books may be overrating Indiana’s offense a bit in response to the Pacers jumping out to a 2-1 series lead. Going with the over on this LeBron prop is about more than the public betting percentages, though — it’s about betting that the best basketball player in the world will go hard with his team in a 2-1 hole. After going for 10 rebounds in Game 1, LeBron has snared 12 in each of the past two games and is the series leader in rebounding at 11.3 per contest. The King has secured 11 or more rebounds in six of his past eight postseason games dating back to last season.
Pictured above: LeBron James
Photo credit: Brian Spurlock – USA TODAY Sports