3 NBA Props for Sunday: Durant Over/Under 7.5 Rebounds?
Pictured: Kevin Durant. Photo credit: Kelley L Cox — USA TODAY Sports
The FantasyLabs Player Props tool analyzes all the NBA player props on the market each day and assigns each a Bet Quality rating. Sunday we have an ugly three-game evening slate with not many highly rated props, so let’s focus in on the late game between the Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns, which starts at 9 p.m. ET.
Warriors F Kevin Durant Over 7.5 Rebounds (-114)
9 p.m. ET
Durant has grabbed double-digit rebounds in four of his past five games. He should be able to make it 5-of-6 against the Suns, who allow the second-most rebounds per game in the league (46.0) thanks to a 44.0% shooting percentage, which ranks second-worst in the NBA. Phoenix’s top shot makers Devin Booker and TJ Warren remain out, and rookie phenom Josh Jackson may not be 100% if he plays, so there should be plenty of clanks off the rim for Phoenix and rebounds to go around for Golden State. In two games against the Suns this season, Durant has averaged 9.0 rebounds in 32.3 minutes — more rebounds in less minutes than his season averages (6.9 rebounds in 34.3 minutes). Bet Quality: 10/10.
Warriors F Draymond Green Under 7.5 Rebounds (-114)
9 p.m. ET
Given what I just mentioned about the Phoenix’s off-target shooting leading to generous rebound totals for its opponents, this prop is a little tough to get behind. Nevertheless, it’s one of only three props on the evening slate with a Bet Quality rating of at least 9/10, so it at least warrants a deeper look. Recent trends are on the side of the under: Since returning from injury on March 29, Green has pulled down eight or more rebounds just twice in six games. Over that span, Durant has out-rebounded Green, 49-37. This season, though, Green is averaging 8.5 rebounds in 34.4 minutes against the Suns, so he definitely could hit the over along with Durant. Ultimately, I’d feel better about the over on Durant’s prop than the under on Green’s, which makes sense given Durant’s has the higher Bet Quality Rating of the two. Bet Quality: 9/10.
Warriors F Kevin Durant Over 28.5 Points (-100)
9 p.m ET
Again, it’s an ugly slate for props, and this prop has a Bet Quality rating of only 6/10. But since we’ve found that Durant over 7.5 rebounds is a strong value, why not double down on a monster game from KD by going over 28.5 points as well? After all, KD has scored 29 or more points in four of the past five games which he’s grabbed eight or more rebounds, and in the one such game he didn’t, he barely missed with 27 points. He’s also shot a ridiculous 71.4% against the Suns this season. Bet Quality: 6/10.